英国大选进入最后冲刺阶段

The Conservatives and Labour remain neck-and-neck on 34 points in the penultimate FT/Populus poll before Thursday’s general election, with neither side breaking the election stalemate.

周四大选前进行的倒数第二次英国《金融时报》/Populus民调显示，保守党(Conservatives)和工党(Labour)仍然并驾齐驱，支持率各为34%，双方均未能打破选举僵局。

The poll puts David Cameron’s party and Ed Miliband’s Labour up one point on the 33 they scored on Friday, while the Liberal Democrats are now on 10, Ukip on 13 and others on 10.

民调显示，戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)领导的保守党和埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)领导的工党较上周五获得的33%增加了1个百分点，同时自由民主党(Liberal Democrats)的支持率为10%，英国独立党(Ukip)为13%，而其他政党的支持率为10%。

Populus polled 2,054 people online on May 1-3.

Populus于5月1日至3日对2053人进行了在线调查。

Another poll by Lord Ashcroft gave the Conservatives the lead with 32, followed by Labour on 30, Ukip on 12 and Liberal Democrats on 11.

另一项由阿什克罗夫特勋爵(Lord Ashcroft)所做的民调显示，保守党以32%的支持率领先，工党以30%的支持率紧随其后，英国独立党为12%，自由民主党为11%。

Rick Nye, Populus managing director, said he expected any movement in the polls to take place over the next 48 hours, as voters make their final calculations on how to vote.

Populus董事总经理里克•奈(Rick Nye)称，随着选民对如何投票进行最后的盘算，他预计未来48小时任何情况都有可能在民调中发生。

“If there is any hardening or softening of any party’s vote share it will happen close to polling day,” he said.

他称，“如果任何政党的得票份额有任何巩固或松动的话，都将会在逼近投票日的时候发生。”

Conservative strategists hope that voters will make a final switch to the “security” offered by a continuation of a Tory government, similar to the trend that put John Major back into power in 1992.

保守党策略师希望，选民最后会投奔由保守党政府连任所提供的“安全”，类似于1992年助推约翰•梅杰(John Major)保住首相职位的趋势。

Mr Nye said there could be some increase in the Lib Dem share as people consider voting tactically in individual seats. The Ukip vote is also holding up well but could yet be squeezed on polling day.

奈称，随着人们战术性地考虑具体席位的投票，自由民主党的得票率可能会有所增加。英国独立党的得票份额也保持良好，但是仍可能在投票日当天被挤掉选票。

Populus will conduct more fieldwork in the next 48 hours in the hope of capturing any final movements of voters.

Populus将在接下来的48小时内进行更多的实地调查，希望以此获取选民的最后动向。

The polling firm also publishes the Populus Predictor for the Financial Times. This feeds data into a proprietary computer model to indicate the likelihood of various election outcomes.

该民调公司也为英国《金融时报》发布Populus预言(Populus Predictor)。它将数据输入一个专有的计算机模型中，得出不同选举结果的可能性。

The last Predictor of the campaign, published last week, indicated a nine-in-10 chance of a minority government. It also showed Mr Miliband becoming prime minister in more than seven out of 10 simulations but in more than three-quarters of these cases needing the votes of SNP MPs to stay there.

上周发表的关于此次竞选的最近一次预言表明，少数党政府的可能性为9/10。预言还显示，在10次模拟中，米利班德成为英国首相超过7次，但在其中3/4以上的情况下需要苏格兰民族党(SNP)议员的支持。