时事新闻:制造业好转显示全球经济开始复苏
【英文原文】
Factory-Sector Gains Signal Global Recovery
The U.S., Asia and Europe made gains in manufacturing this summer, according to data released Tuesday that signal the global economy may grow faster for the remainder of the year than once expected.
In the U.S., the manufacturing sector grew for the first time since January 2008; the key gauge of this, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, rose to 52.9 from 48.9 the previous month, driven by improvements in new orders and production. Levels above 50 indicate growth. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers' index for China swung into expansionary territory in March -- well before other nations -- and has stayed there ever since, but Tuesday's reading of 54.0 for August show activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year. And Japanese industrial output rose 1.9% in July, beating expectations.
The positive signs come on the heels of another report Tuesday showing similar strength in Europe. Though still contracting, the euro-zone manufacturing purchasing manager index rose to 48.2 in August from 46.3 in July, a 14-month high. The improvement came on the back of gains in Germany and France, but Spain and Italy posted declines. The U.K. showed unexpected weakness, as the nation's manufacturing sector shifted into contractionary territory. August's reading came in at 49.7 from 50.2 a month earlier.
Economists and public policy officials credit massive global stimulus efforts with helping lead the march out of the deep recession. Now, they say, private demand must replace the boost to the global economy from the government's monetary and fiscal expansion.
Another big question haunting the global economy now is whether inflation will unexpectedly climb and push the world again into recession, said Mr. Suttle. Others factors that could affect both the strength and length of global growth are unemployment and consumers' reticence to spend.
Still, the August improvement in the U.S. is notable because many of the industries that improved aren't linked to automotive production. That signals an improvement in demand apart from the Cash for Clunkers program, which let people trade vehicles in for a credit toward more fuel-efficient models, helping boost consumer spending and manufacturing.
International Rectifier Corp., which manufactures power semiconductors, said demand and growth were particularly strong in China and Taiwan and the company noted 'encouraging signs of stabilization' in North America, in its earnings call last week. Europe and Japan were still hindered by challenges in the industrial automotive sector.
New orders were a driving force behind the manufacturing gains in the U.S., rising almost 10 percentage points to 64.9. Production and supplier deliveries, which tend to be tied to improvements in new orders, also rose.
In the midst of all the good news, hiring was still a weak spot in the U.S. manufacturing report. The index shows that employment was still contracting and some companies noted in their comments that layoffs were still ahead. Separate indicators released Tuesday showed mixed signs for the construction industry. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose to 97.6 in July from 94.6 in June. But construction spending fell 0.2% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $958 billion compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said.
With hiring still struggling and housing working toward stabilization, healthier foreign economies could buoy the U.S. recovery. The manufacturing report's exports index climbed five percentage points to 55.5 in August.
China has pulled out of the global slump faster and more decisively than any other major economy, thanks to its enormous stimulus program. Now it grapples with a new set of worries that other economies will also have to face when they manage a return to growth. Having shown that the government can force through a short-term recovery, Chinese policymakers now face the challenge of sustaining an expansion over the longer term even while withdrawing official support.
The continued strength of the purchasing managers' index is a sign that China's economy still has momentum, after its gross domestic product surged an annualized 14.9% in the second quarter, according to a central bank estimate. Chinese demand has boosted machinery exports from Germany and Korea, and has been a particular boon to commodity producers like Brazil and Australia.
'With considerable economic policy stimulus in train around the world, the global economy is resuming growth,' Australia's central bank governor, Glenn Stevens, said in a statement Tuesday. 'The major economies appear to be approaching a turning point,' he said, crediting 'very strong' growth in China for aiding an expansion throughout Asia. The large economies of India and Indonesia have maintained relatively steady growth this year, but even export-dependent Hong Kong and Singapore rebounded in the second quarter.
China's growth came close to a standstill in the fourth quarter of 2008, but the manufacturing sector has come well back from those depths. Activity has been boosted by a nearly unprecedented wave of lending from state banks coupled with a rapid public-investment program. A government survey of industrial firms last December found 15% had wholly or partially stopped producing; the latest official update, which looked at 170,000 factories, found that proportion had shrunk to 7.2% in June.
Government spending has led the way this year, but there are signs corporate investment is picking up as well. BOE Technology Group Co. and a consortium of other Chinese state-owned enterprises said last week they will spend $4.1 billion to build a major new liquid-crystal-display factory in Beijing. Yet investments from non-state companies have lagged, and the government admits the recovery won't be on solid ground until private-sector spending takes over the lead.
Confidence remains fragile, and some of the initial euphoria over the stimulus has already evaporated. Despite continued reassurances from the government, the Shanghai stock market declined 23% in August as investors fretted over a slowdown in the pace of bank lending. Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday again reiterated, in a meeting with World Bank President Robert Zoellick, that the government's economic policies won't change direction. 'Beijing still faces the difficult task of managing liquidity conditions to avoid a bubble -- or a bust,' said Brian Jackson, an economist for Royal Bank of Canada.
The biggest boost from the government's massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is probably over: most economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to an annualized pace of 9% to 10% in the second half of this year. Chinese firms appear to have started restocking inventories earlier than companies elsewhere in the world, economists say. So while inventory building will likely help growth in the U.S. and Europe in the rest of 2009, it's unlikely to do much more to boost China's figures.
Still, China's stimulus now seems to be more than strong enough to meet the official target of an 8% expansion for 2009. Officials are still publicly cautious about the world economy, with exports still down 22% from last year, and have repeatedly said the policy to support growth hasn't changed. But government statements in recent weeks have focused more on longer-term issues like funding for small businesses and controlling excess capacity. That's where economists are looking for new measures that would help keep the recovery going into 2010.
【中文译文】
根据周二发布的数据，美国、亚洲和欧洲的制造业今年夏季都出现了回升，显示全球经济在今年剩余时间里的增速可能高于当初的预期。
迹象显示经济转折点将至
新一轮的经济数据显示全球经济正以超预期的速度复苏。但好势头会持续吗？《华尔街日报》经济编辑韦塞尔报道。在美国，制造业自2008年1月以来首次增长；备受关注的供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)制造业指数从上月的48.9升至52.9，主要受新订单和生产改善的推动。指数高于50表明增长。与此同时，中国采购经理人指数3月份进入扩张区域，大大早于其他国家，此后一直保持在扩张区域中，但周二公布的8月份采购经理人指数达到了54，显示制造业活动出现了一年多以来最快速度的扩张。日本7月份的工业产值增长1.9%，也超出了预期。
周二的另一份报告也显示出积极的信号：欧洲制造业也表现出类似的强势。虽然仍处于收缩区，但欧元区制造业采购经理人指数从7月份的46.3升至8月的48.2，为14个月新高。德国和法国的上涨推动了该指数的走高，但西班牙和意大利出现了下降。英国的表现出乎预料地疲软，该国制造业转到了收缩区域。8月的数据从上月的50.2降到了49.7。
经济学家和公共政策官员确信全球大规模的刺激措施推动经济走出了严重的衰退。他们说，现在民间需求必须接替政府的货币和财政扩张政策，担当起提振全球经济的重任。
国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)经济研究全球负责人萨特尔(Philip Suttle)说，目前困扰全球经济的另一个重大问题时通货膨胀率是否会意外攀升，导致全球经济再度陷入衰退。其他可能影响全球增长力度和持续时间的因素包括失业和消费者的支出意愿不强。
不过，美国8月份数据的改善值得关注，因为出现改善的很多行业都与汽车生产无关。这显示旧车换现金计划之外的需求也出现了上升，提振了消费支出和制造业。
半导体生产商International Rectifier称，中国内地和台湾的需求及增长尤为强劲。该公司在上周的收益会议上指出，北美也出现了令人鼓舞的走稳迹象。欧洲和日本仍因汽车业的困难而步履蹒跚。
新订单是美国制造业增长背后的主要推动力量，上升近10个百分点，达到了64.9。与新订单改善有关的生产和供应商交付也出现了增长。
在所有这些好消息之外，就业仍是美国制造业报告的一个弱项。该指数表明，就业仍在收缩，一些公司在报告中表示仍在裁员。周二公布的另外的数据显示，建造业的情况好坏不一。全国地产经纪商协会(National Association of Realtors) 7月份成屋签约销售指数从6月份的94.6升至97.6。但美国商务部称，7月份建筑开支较上月下降了0.2%，经季节性因素调整后折合年率为9,580亿美元。
由于就业状况依然低迷，房屋市场正在趋稳，其他国家良好的经济状况有助于推动美国的复苏。8月份制造业报告中的出口指数攀升5个百分点，至55.5。
得益于规模庞大的刺激计划，中国经济比所有其他主要经济体都更快更明显地走出了全球经济衰退。如今，中国面临着诸多新担忧情绪，其他经济体在努力重返增长时也必须面临相同的问题。中国政府已经表明，他们能够强制推动经济短期复苏，现在他们面临着在撤回政府支持的情况下维持经济长期增长的挑战。
采购经理人指数的持续走高表明，中国经济仍有增长动能。据央行估计，第二季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率增长了14.9%。中国需求已经给从德国到韩国的机械出口带来了提振，一直是巴西和澳大利亚等大宗商品生产国的重要推动力。
澳大利亚央行行长斯蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)周二在一份声名中表示，在全球纷纷推出大规模经济刺激政策的推动下，全球经济正在复苏增长。他说，主要经济体似乎正在接近拐点，中国经济增长势头非常强劲，带动了整个亚洲经济的增长。印度和印尼等亚洲主要经济体今年维持了相当稳定的增长势头，甚至依赖出口的香港和新加坡经济也在第二季度实现了回升。
去年第四季度，中国经济增长几乎陷入停滞，不过中国制造业已经明显走出了当时的低谷。得益于迅速推出的公共投资计划，以及来自国有银行几乎史无前例的放贷热潮，中国制造业活动获得了极大提振。去年12月中国政府对工业公司进行的一项调查显示，15%的企业已经全部或部分停产；不过，对17万家工厂进行的6月份调查显示，停产比例已经降低到了7.2%。
政府支出引领了今年中国经济的复苏之路，但有迹象显示企业投资也正在回升。京东方（BOE Technology Group Co.）和一个由中国其他国有企业组成的财团上周表示，他们将投资41亿美元在北京新建一个液晶显示器工厂。不过，私营部门企业的投资明显相形见绌；中国政府承认，除非私营行业支出占据上风，否则中国经济复苏难有坚实基础。
市场信心依然脆弱，最初对刺激计划的一些热情已经开始消退。虽然中国政府不断安抚人心，但上证综合指数8月份下挫了23%，主要是因为投资者对银行放贷步伐放缓感到紧张焦虑。中国总理温家宝周二在与世界银行行长佐立克(Robert Zoellick)的会谈中再次重申，中国政府不会改变经济政策方向。加拿大皇家银行(Royal Bank of Canada)经济学家杰克逊(Brian Jackson)表示，中国政府仍然面临着管理流动性状况，避免泡沫或泡沫破灭的艰巨任务。
中国政府巨额财政和货币刺激计划带来的最主要提振作用可能已经消散：大多数经济学家预计，今年下半年中国GDP折合成年率增速或将放缓至9%-10%。经济学家们表示，与全球其他地区企业相比，中国企业似乎已经开始提前补充库存。因此，企业补充库存或将给今年余下时间美国和欧洲经济增长带来提振，但已经不太可能给中国经济数据带来多少推动了。
不过，现在看来，中国刺激举措似乎足以实现今年经济增长8%的官方目标。鉴于出口仍然较去年下滑了22%，中国官员仍然对全球经济表示公开担忧，他们多次表示不会改变支持经济增长的政策。不过，最近几周中国政府的声明主要专注于小企业融资以及控制过多流动性等较长期问题。经济学家预计中国政府会在这些领域推出新举措，推动中国经济复苏势头在2010年得以延续。
