美联储(Federal Reserve)宽松货币政策结束 谁将裸泳

For six years, emerging markets have lived in a world defined by the US Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Tides of liquidity have flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge credit-fuelled retail dreams.

六年来，新兴市场一直处在美联储(Federal Reserve)宽松货币政策所营造的世界里。一股又一股流动性洪流从发达经济体涌向发展中经济体，为基础设施和企业投资提供资金，还让消费者陶醉于信贷助燃的消费梦想。

Thus, the Fed’s announcement yesterday that it would draw quantitative easing to an end represents both a watershed and a leap into the unknown.

因此，美联储昨日宣布量化宽松(QE)政策结束，既是一个分水岭，也代表着纵身跳入一个未知世界。

The end of asset purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, beset by a confluence of adverse and interconnected trends. China’s economy is slowing, as is the eurozone led by subpar German demand.

美联储终止资产购买计划之际，适逢新兴市场进入一个充满挑战的时期，受到各种相互关联的不利趋势的困扰。中国经济正在放缓，受德国需求不足拖累的欧元区也是如此。

Commodity prices are in a prolonged slump. Meanwhile, asset prices and debt levels in many developing countries remain at elevated levels following six years of liquidity inflows.

大宗商品——包括石油、基础金属和一些粮食——价格已陷入持续低迷。与此同时，经过六年的流动性流入后，许多发展中国家的资产价格和债务水平仍处于较高水平。

“Even without the commodity downturn, monetary tightening by the US is a dangerous time for emerging markets,” said Michael Power, strategist at Investec, an investment fund.

“即使没有大宗商品的低迷，美国收紧货币政策对新兴市场而言也是一个危险的时刻，”投资基金Investec的分析师迈克尔•鲍尔(Michael Power)表示。“令人想起巴菲特的妙语——只有退潮的时候，才能知道谁在裸泳。”

The broad-based decline in commodity prices, a drag on growth for commodity exporters such as Brazil, Russia and Chile, has been driven in part by markets expecting the end of QE.

大宗商品的价格普遍下降，在一定程度上是因为市场预期量化宽松政策将要告终。价格下降拖累了大宗商品出口国，如巴西、俄罗斯和智利的经济增长。

The unwinding of the US monetary stimulus has underpinned an appreciation by the US dollar, in which most commodities are priced. A rising greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, creating pressure for sellers to lower prices.

美国解除货币刺激的做法推高了美元汇率，而多数大宗商品是以美元计价的。美元升值使得以美元计价的大宗商品对买家更加昂贵，进而给卖家带来降价的压力。

Nomura predicts that a basket of 19 food, energy and metal commodity prices may fall 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, after declining by 12 per cent between June and the end of October. Particularly striking has been the slump in the price of oil, with Brent crude down 17 per cent to $86 a barrel.

野村证券(Nomura)预计，今年第四季度一篮子19种粮食、能源和金属大宗商品价格可能下降10%，而此前从6月至10月底已经下降了12%。特别引人注目的是油价低迷，布伦特(Brent)原油自8月底以来下跌了17%，至每桶86美元。

Rob Subbaraman, chief economist at Nomura, points to changes flowing from the sliding prices of commodities. But, overall, the effect over time is likely to be damaging, potentially triggering political instability.

野村证券首席亚洲经济学家苏博文(Rob Subbaraman)指出了大宗商品价格下滑带来的一些变化。但总体而言，随着时间的推移，影响很可能是不利的，潜在可能引发政治不稳定。

“Over the last 10-year commodity boom, many emerging market countries saw strong economic growth leading to the formation of what many now call the ‘new middle class’,” he said.

“在过去10年的大宗商品繁荣期间，很多新兴市场国家出现强劲经济增长，催生了很多人所称的‘新中产阶级’，”他说。

“A sustained drop in commodity prices could . . . mean a permanent fall in potential growth if no reforms are undertaken. This could cause political instability that could feedback negatively on economic policy.”

“如果不推行改革，大宗商品价格持续下降可能……意味着潜在增长率的永久下降。这可能引起政治不稳定，进而可能对经济政策产生不利影响。”

Falling commodity prices are already leading to lower forecasts for emerging market growth. The International Institute of Finance, an association of global institutions, sees national income in emerging Europe contracting 2.9 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a 0.1 per cent fall in the third quarter, driven mostly by a slump in Russia. In the emerging economies of the Asia-Pacific, the IIF sees growth slowing to 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, down from 7 per cent in the third. Only in Latin America does it see a rise, to 2 per cent from 1.2 per cent in the third quarter.

大宗商品价格不断下跌，已经导致各方下调新兴市场的经济增长预测。国际金融协会（Institute of International Finance，简称IIF）预测，欧洲新兴经济体的国民收入在第三季度萎缩0.1%之后，在第四季度将进一步萎缩2.9%，主要拖累因素是俄罗斯经济陷入低迷。对于亚太地区的新兴经济体，国际金融协会预测第四季度的增长将放缓至6.8%，低于第三季度7%的增幅。根据国际金融协会的预测，只有拉丁美洲的增长会加速，从第三季度的增长1.2%加快至第四季度的增长2%。

In the minds of many analysts, the future depends on what the Fed does next. If it moves swiftly to a more hawkish monetary policy, leading ultimately to a rise in US interest rates, the result for emerging markets could be stark.

在很多分析师的眼里，未来取决于美联储如何走下一步。如果它快速转向更为鹰派的货币政策，最终上调美元利率，其结果对新兴市场可能是严峻的。

“If the Fed raises rates, it could be pretty negative for emerging markets,” said Mr Subbaraman. “A high interest rate environment is something that we have not seen for a long time.”

“如果美联储提高利率，那对新兴市场可能是相当不利的，”野村证券的苏博文说。“大家已经有很久没有经历高利率环境了。”

Particularly vulnerable, said Craig Botham, economist at Schroders, would be debt markets that have become engorged with QE-inflated cash and which have done much to finance government deficits, infrastructure projects and company expansion plans.

施罗德(Schroders)经济学家克雷格•博瑟姆(Craig Botham)表示，近年充斥由QE带来的资金，并且为资助政府赤字、基础设施项目和企业扩张计划出了大力的债务市场尤其脆弱。

Foreign ownership in local emerging market bonds has risen from 8 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2012, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Over the same period, the total size of domestic securities markets in emerging markets increased by a third to over $16tn.

根据国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据，外资所持的新兴市场本地债券比例已从2007年的8%升至2012年的17%。同期，新兴市场国内证券市场的总规模增加三分之一，至16万亿美元以上。

Nevertheless, even with all the negative signals, there are silver linings. Falling commodity prices are leading to ebbing inflationary pressures in much of the emerging world, giving central banks latitude to keep monetary policy loose . And while the Fed has drawn its asset purchases to an end, the Bank of Japan is still busy buying government bonds. The European Central Bank may follow suit if growth in the eurozone continues to disappoint. The era of abundant liquidity is by no means over.

不过，即便有种种负面信号，令人抱有希望的迹象也是有的。不断下跌的大宗商品价格导致许多新兴国家通胀压力消退，使央行拥有保持宽松货币政策的回旋余地。同时，尽管美联储已经终止资产购买计划，但日本央行(Bank of Japan)仍忙于购买政府债券。如果欧元区经济增长继续令人失望，欧洲央行(ECB)也可能效仿。流动性充裕的时代远远没有结束。