关注社会:铁岭新城变鬼城 中国城市化之困

When this smAll city in northeastern China launched a plan to build a satellite city six miles down the road, it got off to a promising start.

当铁岭这个位于中国东北部的小城市计划在距离该市6英里（9.65公里）的地方兴建一座卫星城时，这个城市翻开了前景光明的一页。

Urban planners spent millions of yuan to clean up surrounding marshland that had become a dumping ground for the city's untreated sewage. A pristine environment, they hoped, would help attract the businesses that would raise incomes and swell the population.

城市规划者耗资人民币数百上千万元来清理周边已经成为未处理污水排放地的沼泽区。他们希望一个崭新的环境能够吸引企业在这里安营扎寨，从而提高居民收入和增加这里的人口数量。

Four years later, Tieling New City is virtually a ghost town.

然而四年后，铁岭新城实际上已经变成一个鬼城。

Clean waterways weave among deserted residential and government buildings. Housing blocks that won recognition from the United Nations for providing good affordable homes are almost empty. The businesses that were supposed to create local employment haven't materialized. Without jobs, there is little incentive for anybody to move here.

清洁的水道蜿蜒于空旷的住宅和政府建筑之间。在曾经因提供质优价廉住房而获得联合国(United Nations)认可的住宅区，几乎无人居住。引进企业创造就业的计划也未能落实。没有工作机会，人们就没有迁居至此的动力。

Tieling symbolizes the enormous challenges Chinese Premier Li Keqiang faces as he touts urbanization─a process analysts expect will see 250 million people move from rural areas to cities over 20 years─as the force that will ensure his country's economy keeps growing well into the future.

铁岭的情况彰显出中国总理李克强面临的巨大挑战。他认为城市化是确保未来中国经济持续增长的推动力。分析师们预计，未来20年，在城市化进程中将有2.5亿人口从农村地区迁移至城市。

'Urbanization will not only drive tremendous consumption and investment demand, and create employment opportunities, but directly affect the well-being of the people,' Mr. Li said in March during his first news conference as Chinese premier.

李克强3月份在当选中国总理后的首个新闻发布会上说，城市化不仅会推动巨大的消费和投资需求并增加就业机会，还会直接影响到人民的生活质量。

Mr. Li has yet to present a detailed vision of how to achieve his economic goals.

李克强尚未公布一份有关如何实现他经济目标的详细计划。

In theory, urbanization stimulates growth because city dwellers typically earn more than their rural counterparts, allowing them to spend more on consumer goods and services.

理论上说，城市化之所以能刺激经济增长，是因为城市居民的收入通常高于农村居民，他们在消费品和服务方面的支出也就更多。

For the government to realize that payoff, though, it must create jobs that will draw people into the cities. Tieling underscores the difficulty.

但政府要想实现这样的结果，则必须能够创造出就业机会，将人们吸引到城市。铁岭的情况凸显了这种难度。

Among the few business owners lured to a development park in Tieling New City is Bo Yuquan, the middle-aged owner of a flooring store.

薄玉全是铁岭新城一个开发区吸引到的为数不多的几个企业主之一。这位中年企业主经营着一家地板材料商店。

'Where are the people? There's no one here,' said Mr. Bo. 'I'll be out of business soon. My staff and I are discussing moving to Beijing to find work.'

薄玉全说，人都在哪儿？这里根本没有人。他说，他不久就会关闭店铺，他和员工正在商量去北京找工作。

Said Hu Jie, the designer of the new city's landscape: 'In 10 to 20 years, Tieling could be a good development, but only if you can manage to bring businesses in.'

铁岭新城景观设计者胡洁说，未来10到20年，铁岭可能会有不错的发展，但前提是你能设法把企业吸引来。

The Chinese export sector drove earlier waves of urbanization but is thought unlikely to do so again, what with demand still weak in developed economies and rising costs making Chinese goods less competitive globally. Massive overcapacity in many industries, including steel, solar and shipbuilding, will further constrain job creation.

中国出口行业推动了此前的城市化浪潮，但考虑到发达经济体需求依旧疲软，并且成本上升令中国制造的产品在全球失去竞争力，出口行业已被认为不大可能再度发挥这样的作用。包括钢铁、太阳能和造船在内的许多工业领域产能严重过剩，这会进一步抑制就业增长。

In recent years, cities have filled the gap with construction jobs created by a nationwide investment boom. While that has kept China's economy buoyant, it also has thrown up empty suburbs and ghost cities like Tieling New City across the country.

近年来，很多城市利用全国投资热潮创造的建筑就业填补了这个缺口。此举维持中国经济呈现出欣欣向荣的景象，但同时也在全国各地造就了没有人烟的郊区和铁岭新城这样的鬼城。

The investment boom has threatened to fuel inflation and bog down the financial sector with bad loans, particularly if people don't move in and bring the promised economic dividend.

这股投资热潮可能会令通胀加剧，并带来坏账，使金融业陷入困境，特别是如果人们不乔迁新城、无法带来承诺中的经济红利的话。

China has a record of building first and creating demand later, notably in Shanghai, where a decade ago the towering new Pudong business district initially failed to attract tenants but later became a symbol of China's success.

中国有先盖楼后创造需求的做法，最明显的就是在上海。10年前，高楼林立的浦东新商业区最初无法吸引到租户，但后来却成为了中国成功的象征。

Many smaller cities lack the pulling power of Shanghai.

很多小城市缺乏上海那样的拉动力。

'With more and better job opportunities in higher-tier cities, many lower-tier cities have actually been experiencing a net outflow of population, while land sales [to home builders] there increased rapidly, exacerbating the housing oversupply,' wrote Credit Suisse property analyst Du Jinsong in a recent note.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松不久前在一份报告中写道：由于一、二线城市有更多更好的就业机会，很多三、四线城市的人口实际上一直在净流出，同时那些地方出售给开发商的土地快速增加，令房屋供过于求的情况雪上加霜。

According to population data collected by Mr. Du on 287 Chinese cities, about two-thirds, mostly smaller urban centers, had fewer residents than people who were registered to live there, suggesting people have been leaving their home cities.

据杜劲松收集的有关中国287个城市的人口数据显示，大约三分之二的城市（多半是规模较小的中心城市）常住人口少于户籍人口，这表明人们一直在离开家乡城市。

Tieling, a city of about 340,000, launched its plan to build a new city in 2005, part of a broader strategy by the Liaoning provincial leadership to revive a local rust-belt economy.

铁岭是个有约34万人口的城市，2005年启动了修建新城的计划。这也是辽宁省领导层振兴当地老工业经济战略的一部分。

The plan was to stimulate growth around Tieling and six other nearby cities by building highways and high-speed rail lines connecting them with Shenyang, a metropolis that is about a 90-minute drive south of Tieling.

该计划原是要通过修建高速公路和铁路将铁岭和附近其它六个城市与辽宁省会沈阳相连，从而刺激周边经济增长。沈阳位于铁岭以南，驱车大约90分钟。

The idea was that companies would be drawn to the satellite cities by cheaper land and lower labor costs, while still enjoying proximity to the region's largest city. Tieling's new city was expected to house 60,000 residents in 2010 and later triple that number.

当时的想法是，企业会因地价便宜和劳动成本低廉而被吸引到那些卫星城，同时还能毗邻东北最大城市沈阳。原先曾预计铁岭新城到2010年有常住人口6万人，之后再增加两倍。

In 2009 the wetlands' rejuvenation was complete, along with the new city's infrastructure, canals, government offices and some apartment buildings. The new city won a special mention from the U.N. Human Settlements Program for 'providing a well-developed and modern living space.'

2009年，湿地恢复工程竣工，同时新城的基建、水渠、政府大楼和一些公寓楼也相继建成。铁岭新城因为提供了成熟完善的现代化生活空间还得到了联合国人居署(U.N. Human Settlements Program)的特别表扬。

But come dusk, the lights in row after row of apartment buildings remain off. Salespeople, security guards and the small smattering of residents say almost all of the accommodation is empty.

但每到傍晚，一排排的公寓楼都没有灯光亮起。销售人员、保安和极少数住在这里的居民说，几乎所有房屋都没有人住。

A development park set up to attract providers of back-office services to financial firms, such as data storage, was supposed to employ 15,000 to 20,000 people by the end of the this year, according to the park's website.

某开发区网站显示，该开发区到今年底本应雇用1.5万至2万人。其建立初衷是想吸引为金融企业提供后台服务的公司，如数据存储等。

Situated on the outskirts of the new city, the park is easy to miss. It is home to only two companies, one of which, a bank office, employs fewer than 20, said its security guard.

这个坐落于铁岭新城郊区的开发区很不起眼。保安说，现在只有两个公司在这里落户，其中一个是银行办事处，雇用了不到20人。

Another park filled with warehouses outside the new city fares little better. Marketed as a trading hub for China's northeast region, it was supposed to foster a logistics industry by taking advantage of Tieling's location near two major highways and a port, with rail links to Shenyang and the rest of the northeast.

另一个位于铁岭新城以外、到处建有仓库的开发区也好不到哪去。该开发区曾以东北贸易枢纽的口号被推向市场，原以为可利用铁岭的地理优势培育出一个物流产业。铁岭靠近两大主要高速公路和一个港口，且与沈阳和东北其它地方有铁路相连。

Although most of the shop space has been sold, the park lies largely empty except for a handful of wholesalers. Meanwhile, there are plans for the park to double in size, an expansion that would include more apartment buildings.

虽然大多数店面都已售出，但园区基本上还是空荡荡的，只有少数几家批发商。与此同时，有关方面还有将园区规模扩大一倍的计划，包括兴建更多的公寓楼。

'The park doesn't have any advantages over Shenyang's wholesale markets,' said Liu Wei, a researcher at the government-backed Institute of Comprehensive Transportation, who worked on Tieling's plans for a logistics center.

政府支持的综合运输研究所研究人员刘伟，这个园区相对于沈阳的批发市场没有任何优势。刘伟参与了铁岭的物流中心规划。

So far, the new city's greatest success has been a zone dedicated to building special-purpose vehicles such as snowplows.

迄今为止，这座新城最为成功的是一个专门用于生产扫雪机等特殊用途车辆的区域。

According to a statement on the Tieling government website in April 2012, the park created 5,000 jobs for rural workers. But it also said the workers had bought apartments in a residential compound across the road from the park, far from the city centers of both old and new Tieling.

据铁岭市政府网站2012年4月的一份声明，该园区为农民工创造了5,000个工作岗位。但声明还说，工人们在园区马路对面的一个居民区买了房，远离铁岭老城和新城的市中心。

The few rural migrants who live in the new city used to farm the land it was built on. Some now work for the new city shoveling snow and sweeping streets.

居住在新城的极少数农民工曾经在园区所在的土地上耕作。一些人如今在新城从事铲雪和街道清扫的工作。

Local authorities have tried to boost the population by pushing people from the old city into the new. That effort has involved moving government offices into the new city. But so far, most government workers still commute from their existing homes.

地方当局试图增加这里的人口，促使人们从老城搬到新城。该举措包括将政府办公室迁至新城。但到目前为止，大多数政府职员仍然从原先的家通勤上下班。

The effort also has involved closing schools in the old city and the greater Tieling county and corralling the students into newly built schools in the new city.

增加人口的举措还包括关闭老城和范围更大的铁岭县的学校，将学生们集中到新城的新建学校里。

According to Sun Baocai, the office director of the Tieling Bureau of Education, 50,000 students are enrolled in classes in the new city, ranging from elementary classes to vocational courses.

据铁岭教育局办公室主任孙宝财说，新城的学校有5万名学生入学，包括从小学到职业教育课程在内的各类班级。

The hope is that parents will move to be closer to the schools. But many residents of the old city say that despite the new city's pleasant environment, its lack of services and absence of a community deter them from moving.

有关方面寄希望于家长会搬到离学校更近的地方。但许多老城居民说，虽然新城环境不错，但服务匮乏，也没有社区，因此他们不想搬过去。

Against all this, Tieling is choosing to keep building. The municipal government has rolled out plans to spend a further $1.3 billion on projects in the new city this year, including an art gallery, gymnasium and indoor swimming pool.

尽管有以上种种情况，铁岭仍然选择继续建设。市政府推出了今年在新城项目上继续开支13亿美元的计划，建设项目包括美术馆、体育馆和室内游泳池。

That is despite municipal finances coming under increasing stress.

而这是在该市财政面临持续压力的情况下作出的决定。

'Financing costs are rising all the time, and raising capital has become even more difficult,' the Tieling city government said in its budget forecast for 2013. 'Some long-term problems and imbalances have accumulated in the management of the city's finances.' It didn't say how it planned to fund the new buildings.

铁岭市政府在2013年预算预测中说，融资成本不断上升，筹集资金愈加困难。市财政管理过程中积累了一些长期问题和不平衡现象。市政府没有说计划如何为新建项目融资。

Cui Xinzi runs a stall selling leather jackets at the only shopping center in the new city. Despite having bought an apartment there three years ago, she still lives in the old city and commutes.

催信子在新城唯一的购物中心经营着一个销售皮夹克的摊位。虽然她三年前在那里买了一套公寓，但仍然住在老城，每天往返。

Ms. Cui likes the idea of retiring to the new city but isn't optimistic its population will increase. 'It still needs more time, but it's really hard to say,' she said with a sigh. 'They're building a new shopping center, so I hope so.'

催信子喜欢退休后去新城的想法，但对于新城人口将会增长并不乐观。她叹息说，还需要更多时间，但真的很难说。他们在修建一个新的购物中心，因此我希望如此。