关注社会:中国有望成为全球最大黄金市场

India has for decades been the world's largest gold market, but in the final quarter of 2011 demand tumbled by almost half from a year earlier as a collapse in the value of the rupee made gold more expensive for Indian buyers.

几十年来，印度一直是全球最大的黄金市场，但去年第四季度印度黄金需求同比下降近一半，主要原因是卢比贬值，导致黄金对印度买家来说变得更为昂贵。

"It is likely that China will emerge as the largest gold market in the world for the first time in 2012," said Marcus Grubb, managing director for investment at the WGC, a lobby group for the gold mining industry.

“2012年，中国很可能会首次成为世界最大的黄金市场。”世界黄金协会投资部董事总经理郭博思(Marcus Grubb)表示。该协会是黄金开采行业的游说组织。

Thursday's prediction comes after a surge in Chinese gold demand last year, with imports from Hong Kong — a proxy for overall import demand — more than tripling from 2010. In the second half of the year, as Indian demand waned, China edged ahead as the world's top consumer, according to data from GFMS, the consultancy, that were published by the WGC on Thursday.

去年中国内地的黄金需求大幅增长，从香港进口的黄金数量（总体进口需求的晴雨表）比2010年增长两倍以上。根据咨询机构——黄金矿业服务有限公司(GFMS)的数据，去年下半年，随着印度黄金需求减弱，中国一跃成为全球最大的黄金消费国。这些数据由世界黄金协会在周四发布。

China has become an increasingly important driver of the gold price, with large purchases propping up prices late last year as western investors were selling.

中国已成为左右金价的一大因素，重要性日益上升。去年底，在西方投资者纷纷减持之际，来自中国的大量买盘对金价形成了支撑。

On Wednesday night, gold was trading at $1,726 a troy ounce, up 13.5 per cent from a late December low but still 10 per cent below the nominal record high of $1,920 set in September. Paulson and Co, one of the largest hedge fund investors in gold, revealed in a regulatory filing this week that it had sold 45 per cent of its holdings of gold exchange-traded funds in the second half of the year.

周三晚，金价报每盎司1726美元，较去年12月底的低位高出13.5%，但仍比去年9月创下的名义历史新高每盎司1920美元低10%。对冲基金中最大的黄金投资者之一保尔森公司(Paulson and Co)在本周提交监管部门的材料中披露，该公司去年下半年减持了45%的黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）。

Mr Grubb predicted that Chinese consumption would rise this year at pace similar to the 20 per cent increase in 2011. That implies jewellery and investment demand of about 925 tonnes in 2012. On the other hand, he said Indian demand could fall from its level of 933 tonnes in 2011.

郭博思预计，今年中国黄金消费量的增幅将与去年相当。去年增幅为20%。以此计算，2012年中国金饰和黄金投资需求将达925吨左右。另一方面，他表示，今年印度黄金需求可能低于2011年933吨的水平。

"The dynamic in those two economies is radically different," he said. "There might be more challenges to the Indian market [than the Chinese market] in the next 12 months."

郭博思表示：“这两个经济体的动态截然不同。在未来12个月内，印度市场面临的挑战可能（比中国市场）更多。”

Indian economic growth has slowed, with the government recently cutting its forecast for growth in this fiscal year ending in March to 7 per cent, having steadily pared back previous projections of nearly 9 per cent.

印度经济增长已经放缓，政府最近调低了对截至3月份的这一财年的经济增长预测，经过几番下调，这一预测数字已从最早的近9%下调为7%。

"You've effectively seen foreign direct investment dry up in India," Mr Grubb said. "That feeds down into the economy with slowing growth and less liquidity available. That really impacts the rupee, and gold looks horribly expensive to local consumers."

郭博思表示：“你可以看到，印度外来直接投资已几近枯竭，这对经济产生了影响，导致增长放缓、流动性减少。这实际上对卢比汇率造成了冲击，在本地消费者眼里，现在黄金看起来非常贵。”

In China, on the other hand, Mr Grubb predicted further strength as both growth and inflation remain relatively high, driving local consumers to invest in bullion to protect their wealth. Savers have poured their money into gold because of the lack of alternative investment options in China, were bank deposits carry negative real interest rates and property prices have been sliding.

另一方面，郭博思预计中国黄金需求将进一步走强，因为国内经济增长仍然较为强劲，通胀水平仍然较高，这会促使中国消费者投资黄金，以达到财富保值的目的。在中国，由于银行存款实际利率为负、房价持续下滑，而此外又没有多少投资途径，所以储户们纷纷把资金投在黄金上。

Chinese gold consumption has already risen by 140 per cent between 2007 and 2011, as growing wealth and the liberalisation of the domestic gold market drive a surge in consumption. Beijing has encouraged gold consumption, announcing in August 2010 measures to promote and regulate the local gold market, including expanding the number of banks allowed to import bullion.

从2007年到2011年期间，中国黄金消费量增长了140%，财富的增长和国内黄金市场的放开带动了黄金消费的增长。中国政府鼓励黄金消费，于2010年8月出台了一些促进和监管本地黄金市场发展的措施，包括允许更多银行从事黄金进口业务。

Elsewhere last year, demand for gold in Europe surged as investors fretted about the worsening eurozone debt crisis. European investment in coins and bars rose 26 per cent to 375 tonnes, the WGC said, making the region the largest market for physical gold investment products.

在其他地区中，欧洲黄金需求大幅上升，原因是投资者对持续恶化的欧债危机感到不安。世界黄金协会表示，去年欧洲在金币和金条上的投资增长了26%，达375吨，使该地区成为实物黄金投资产品的最大市场。

Additional reporting by Leslie Hook in Beijing

何丽(Leslie Hook)北京补充报道

译者:何黎