关注社会:全球市场即将迎来多事之秋

Markets have been surprisingly quiet ahead of an autumn that looks set to be full of dramatic economic, financial and political events.

即将到来的秋天注定会迎来一系列戏剧性的经济、金融和政治事件。而在此之前，市场一直出奇的平静。

Money managers say the recent quiet masks uncertainty as they position their portfolios to benefit from a potential rally but also to withstand shocks ranging from upheaval in Europe to further easing by central banks to leadership changes in the worlds' two biggest economies.

投资经理们表示，市场近期的平静掩盖了不确定性。投资经理调整了投资组合，以期从市场可能出现的反弹中获利，同时也准备好接受来自各种事件的冲击，这其中包括欧洲的动荡形势，全球央行推出进一步宽松政策，以及全球两大经济体的领导人更迭。

'We are certainly not ignoring the possibility of downside in the markets,' said Tahnoon Pasha, Asia chief executive officer for equities and fixed income at Aviva Investors in Singapore, where the company manages assets worth just under $6 billion.

英杰华投资集团(Aviva Investors)驻新加坡负责股票和固定收益的亚洲区首席执行长帕沙(Tahnoon Pasha)说：我们当然没有忽略市场出现下跌的可能。英杰华在新加坡管理的资产规模接近60亿美元。

A speech Friday by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, Wyo., in some ways kicked off the new season. Mr. Bernanke defended the Fed's monetary policies and raised hopes for more stimulus, pushing up U.S. stocks, gold, oil and prices of 10-year U.S. Treasurys.

美国联邦储备委员会主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)上周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)的讲话从某种意义上说拉开了市场“新赛季”的帷幕。贝南克在讲话中捍卫了美联储的货币政策，令市场相信美联储可能推出更多刺激政策。这一信号推升了美国股市、金价、油价以及10年期美国国债的价格。

Mr. Bernanke's comments are just a foretaste of central bankers' likely rocking of markets. When it comes to Europe, investors are waiting to see whether European Central Bank President Mario Draghi can live up to his promise to do 'whatever it takes' to save the euro.

贝南克的讲话只是一个信号，它预示着全球央行官员可能推出影响市场的重大举措。欧洲的情况是，投资者还在等待观望，他们想看看欧洲央行(European Central Bank)行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)是否能兑现其此前做出的“不惜一切代价”拯救欧元的承诺。

Some investors took Saturday's news out of China that manufacturing had contracted in August─with the official purchasing-managers index falling to its lowest level in nine months─as an indication that Beijing will boost what has so far been relatively modest stimulus.

在部分投资者看来，上周六传出的有关中国8月制造业活动收缩的消息可能预示着，中国政府将加强迄今为止相对温和的刺激政策。上周六公布的中国8月官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至九个月来的最低点。

This week marks the traditional start of autumn in the U.S. and Europe, when investors return from summer holidays and start trading with an eye toward their year-end results. Volumes are expected to pick up─as, potentially, is volatility.

本周在传统上标志着美国和欧洲秋季的开始。每当这个时候，投资者结束暑期休假开始交易，他们的目光紧盯着年终业绩。预计交易量将回升，同时波动性也可能加大。

With the MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index up 9.7% from the 2012 lows that it reached on June 4, investors are looking to see whether the recent gains are sustainable. There is a growing belief that if policy makers fail to meet market expectations, there could be another selloff.

摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数(MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan Index)从今年6月4日创下的年中低点至今上涨9.7%。投资者正在观望最近这波上涨是否能够持续。有越来越多的人认为，如果政策制定者未能满足市场预期，可能会出现另一轮抛售。

In the near term, the news will flow most heavily from Europe, with an ECB policy meeting on Thursday that may produce more clarity on a bond-buying program, followed by a ruling next week by the German Constitutional Court on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism.

在短期内，影响市场的重大消息将主要来自欧洲。本周四召开的欧洲央行政策会议可能会向外界更加清晰地传递有关债券购买计划的信息。下周，德国宪法法院将对欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism)的合法性做出裁决。

After years of waiting on European developments, investors aren't convinced that a definitive solution is around the corner.

在关注欧洲的进展长达数年之后，投资者如今不再相信一份明确的解决方案指日可待。

'Not that I expect a wholehearted policy response, but I expect greater transparency in terms of what will unfold,' said Tim Schroeders, a fund manager at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, which manages about $1 billion.

Pengana Capital公司驻墨尔本的基金经理施洛德斯(Tim Schroeders)说：我并不是期待一个完整的政策回应，我期待的是增加有关未来局势的透明度。这家公司管理着大约10亿美元资产。

Mr. Schroeders said that while he is maintaining his exposure to some risky assets, he is sticking with easily traded investments and staying away from less-liquid small-cap stocks as he anticipates uncertainty and volatility will remain high for the rest of the year.

施洛德斯说，尽管他仍保持着对一些高风险资产的敞口，但他现在坚持投资于可以轻松交易的投资产品，远离流动性较差的小型股，因为他预计今年余下时间市场的不确定性和波动性仍然会很高。

James White, senior analyst at First State Investments in Sydney, which manages $148.8 billion in assets, said, 'What we will probably get out of September is more confirmation that Europe is able to delay any dramatic restructuring, which will probably be positive for markets in the short term.'

首域投资(First State Investments)驻悉尼的高级分析师怀特(James White)说，9月份的情形可能会让我们更加确信，欧洲能够推迟任何重大的重组措施，从短期来看这对市场可能是积极的。首域投资管理着1,488亿美元的资产。

Investors are also closely watching the leadership transition in China and the presidential election in the U.S., both of which could lead to more stimulus measures in those economies.

投资者正在密切关注中国的领导层换届和美国的总统大选，这两件事都可能为这两大经济体带来更多刺激性措施。

The underlying dynamics are very different for the recent rally than for the one at the beginning of the year, when the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index climbed 22% from late November to the end of February, according to research by HSBC, which holds that the current rally looks 'weaker' than the last.

最近这次反弹的内在原因与年初的那次反弹有很大不同，根据汇丰控股(HSBC)的研究，2月末，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数较去年11月末上涨了22%。汇丰控股认为，如今的反弹看起来比上一次更加脆弱。

That earlier rally, the bank says, was driven largely by the ECB's unexpected announcement of its so-called long-term refinancing operation, in which European banks were able to borrow at low interest rates, which eased pressure on the banks. In the recent rally, the markets have reacted not to central-bank action, but rather in anticipation that something will happen. And this rally is taking place in a more difficult environment of earnings downgrades and falling rather than rising trading volumes.

汇丰控股说，早些时候的反弹主要是因为欧洲央行意外宣布了所谓的长期再融资操作，这一操作使欧洲的银行可以以较低的利率借款，从而减轻了银行的压力。在最近的反弹中，市场并不是对央行的行动做出反应，只是人们预计会有事情发生。这次反弹所处的环境更加艰难，收益预期被下调，成交量不升反降。

Cracks are already showing; the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index has lost 2.8% since Aug. 23, as optimism about central-bank action has waned due to a lack of supportive news.

目前已经显现出下跌的迹象。8月23日以来，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数下跌了2.8%，由于缺乏支持性的报道，人们对央行行动的乐观态度已经消退。

Yet valuations remain cheap in Asia, with the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5, compared with a 15-year historical average of 12.7.

不过，亚洲股市的估值仍然很低，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（不含日本）指数的预期市盈率是10.5倍，相比之下15年的历史平均值为12.7倍。

'Over a 24-month view, equities are a hugely attractive asset class,' said Aviva's Mr. Pasha, pointing to 'incredibly compelling' valuations and strong corporate balance sheets. 'The real issue is not so much where we will be in 24 months from now, but the critical path that takes us there.'

英杰华的帕沙说，从24个月的数据来看，股票目前是一种非常有吸引力的资产。他给出的理由是估值十分具有吸引力，且公司的资产负债状况表现强劲。他说，真正的问题不是24个月后市场会达到一个什么样的水平，而是以何种途径到达那里。