关注社会:中国股市为何不涨?

When it announced new stock listing rules over the weekend, the Chinese securities regulator was trying to end a decade of underachievement.

当中国的证券监管机构在周末期间公布新股发行新规时，它试图终结中国股市过去十年中表现不佳的局面。

The best economic growth story of the 21st century has been a poor investment play. While its gross domestic product has shot up, China's equity market has languished.

21世纪最强的经济增长神话没能造就一次绝佳的投资良机。尽管中国的国内生产总值(GDP)迅速增长，但中国股票市场的发展却步履维艰。

Part of the blame has been an initiAl public offering system that consistently overprices shares, to the benefit of newly listed companies and their underwriters. Those buying into IPOs on their first day of trading have lost money, and the mass of ordinary investors in China has slowly lost confidence in stocks.

之所以会有这样的反差，部分原因在于中国的首次公开发行(IPO)体制。在该体制下时常会出现新股定价过高的状况，从而有利于上市公司以及它们的承销商。而那些在交易首日买入新股的投资者则会出现亏损，如此一来，中国的广大普通投资者也就渐渐对股市失去了信心。

More pre-listing disclosures and greater institutional participation in pricing – the reforms detailed on Sunday – should add some stability to China's casino-like markets. Guo Shuqing, the reformist who was appointed securities regulator six months ago, has also tried to limit insider trading.

4月28日公布的改革内容包括加大上市前的信息披露力度，并让机构更多地参与定价环节。这些举措应该能为赌场一般的中国股市带来更大的稳定性。6个月前受命出任中国证监会(CSRC)主席的改革派人士郭树清还试图抑制内幕交易。

But he is fighting a paradox seen throughout emerging markets and typified by China: high gross domestic product growth often goes hand-in-hand with lousy stock returns.

然而，他要与这样一个矛盾作斗争：在GDP高速增长的同时，与之相伴的往往却是股市回报率的低迷。这种现象是整个新兴市场的共性，尤以中国的情况最为典型。

"Companies raising money, not investors, have done well off the stock market. The vast majority of investors have had no way to profit," says Ye Tan, a financial commentator.

财经评论员叶檀指出：“在市场上获利的主要是融资者，而不是投资者。绝大部分投资者都无法从市场上获利。”

If China's GDP were a security you could buy, it would have delivered strong returns. The value of China's annual output nearly quintupled from 2000 to 2011, which would have made it one of the best investments in the world.

如果中国的GDP是一款能够购买的证券产品，它将带来丰厚的回报。2000年至2011年期间，中国的年度经济产值增长了近四倍，这会使它成为世界上最超值的投资产品之一。

But GDP is not a security. The Shanghai Composite Index, something you can invest in, has a much weaker record. It rose about 46 per cent over the past decade, barely keeping pace with inflation. How can China's growth have been so fast and its stocks so sluggish?

但GDP不是一种证券。上证综指(Shanghai Composite Index)，一种名副其实的投资品，它的表现就要逊色许多。该指数在过去十年间上涨约46%，勉强与通胀水平同步。中国的经济增长如此之快而股市表现却如此乏力，这种状况究竟是如何造成的？

The first thing to note is that China is far from an aberration. GDP is crucial to understanding economic performance, but it has proven a bad predictor of equity returns. As Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and other economists have documented, there is no stable relationship between GDP and stock performance.

首先要指出，中国并没有偏离正常的轨道。GDP对于理解经济表现有着至关重要的意义，但对股市回报率而言，GDP的预测作用就要大打折扣了。正如佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的杰伊?里特(Jay Ritter)及其他经济学家所指出的，GDP与股市表现之间并不存在一种稳定的关系。

China illustrates two key reasons why fast-growing countries often disappoint investors.

至于快速增长的经济体为何屡屡让投资者失望，中国给出了两大重要原因。

First, there is a simple question of maturity. China's stock market was established only two decades ago, so it would have been extremely surprising if it had behaved like long-established bourses in developed economies. Many of the biggest components of the Shanghai Composite Index, including the top banks, listed after 2005.

第一个原因很简单——股市不够成熟。中国股市创建至今仅有20年时间，假若中国股市的表现和发达经济体中那些历史悠久的股市表现一样，人们反倒会倍感意外。上证综指成分股中，有许多权重股（包括几家大型银行）均是在2005年之后才上市。

Moreover, there has been a steady dilution of existing investors as China has reformed state-owned companies by gradually "unlocking" their shares for trading. The portion of tradable shares in China has risen from about 30 per cent of listed companies a decade ago to 70 per cent.

另外，中国采取原始股逐步“解禁”的方式推进国企改革，导致现有投资者股权不断被稀释。中国流通股占股市总股本的比重已从10年前的约30%增至70%。

"The objective in establishing the stock market was to give state-owned companies a way to escape their difficulties. It was only after the late 1990s that thought was given to protecting investors' interests, and this transformation is not yet complete," says Zhao Xijun, a professor at People's University.

中国人民大学(People's University)教授赵锡军表示：“（最早）建立股市是为了给国有企业脱困服务。上世纪90年代后期才提出来要保护投资者的利益（等理念）。这些理念的改革现在还没有到位。”

The second factor, as in other developing countries, is the market's legal and political backdrop. This is much harder to change. The corrosive influence of insider trading was highlighted in a 2002 study of China's stock market by Dow Jones Indexes. It showed that the vast bulk of the gains over the previous decade had occurred on 10 specific trading days when stocks jumped.

第二个原因（如在其他发展中国家一样）是市场的法律和政治背景。改变这个因素的难度要大得多。从道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Indexes)2002年一项对中国股市的研究中可以明显看出，内幕交易会腐蚀市场。该研究显示，之前10年中大部分获利是在股价上涨的10个特定交易日内发生的。

The inference was that only investors who possessed critical information – often linked to state policy announcements – were able to make money. Everyone else was just along for the ride. Although China has taken steps to clean up its markets since then, insider trading remains pervasive. Mr Guo has launched yet another crackdown.

由此可以推出，只有获知关键信息（通常与政府即将宣布的某项政策有关）的投资者能够获利。其他所有人都只是在碰运气。尽管自那以后中国已采取措施清理市场，但内幕交易仍十分普遍。郭树清已发起一轮新的治市活动。

Investors are by now familiar with the immaturity and the insider trading in the Chinese market. After the disappointing performance of the past decade, it is clear that negatives are more fully priced in. The ratio of Chinese share prices to last year's earnings is near a historic low at 14.7, about the same as in the US.

投资者如今已对中国股市的不成熟和内幕交易习以为常了。经过过去十年差强人意的表现，如今的股市显然已更多地体现了各种负面因素。中国股市市盈率（按去年利润计算）现为14.7，已接近历史最低点，约与美国的水平一致。

As Mr Guo continues his reform drive – bringing more institutional money into the market, adjusting the IPO pricing system, implementing easier delisting rules and more – the maturation of the Chinese stock market could be argued to be accelerating.

在郭树清继续推进股市改革之际，中国股市趋于成熟的速度可以说在加快。郭树清的改革措施包括：向股市引入更多机构资金，调整IPO的定价体制，改变规则、降低上市公司退市的难度，等等。

Geoff Lewis, head of investment services with JPMorgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, says Chinese shares are approaching a point where they can be assessed like those in other markets.

驻香港的摩根大通资产管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)投资服务负责人杰夫?刘易斯(Geoff Lewis)表示，中国股市的可评估程度正在趋近于其他股市。

"Your view on China should be whether you think it will be a soft landing or a hard landing. I don't think it should be related to structural overhangs or market imperfections," he says. If economic performance does start determining investment performance, it would indeed be a new departure for Chinese stocks.

刘易斯表示：“你对中国的看法应该取决于你认为中国经济会软着陆还是会硬着陆。我认为结构性威胁或市场失灵的因素不应影响你对中国的看法。”如果经济的表现真的开始决定投资业绩，中国股市将真正展开一段新的旅程。

Additional reporting by Emma Dong

董慧(Emma Dong)补充报道 译者:何黎