长线观点 美联储沉默是金

The sounds of silence. The prospect of tighter FederAl Reserve policy and a disorderly slide in China’s renminbi have dominated fearful market conversations for much of the year. Now, as the frightened chatter quietens to barely a whisper, investors are playing catch-up on performance.

沉默之声。今年以来的大部分时间里，美联储(Fed)收紧政策和人民币无序下滑的前景主导着忧虑的市场言论。现在，随着这些忧虑的谈论渐渐平息，投资者开始买入各种资产，推高了金融市场。

Many began the week embracing a disappointing US jobs report for May as another example of bad news being a good thing.

上周开始时，很多人将美国令人失望的5月份就业报告看成“坏消息是利好”的又一个例证。

Commonly known as the central bank put, it’s when weaker economic news prompts investors to buy equities, commodities and corporate debt in the belief that interest rate policy will remain loose, or in the case of the US Fed this summer, happily unchanged.

这个道理通常被称为“央行对策”，即更为疲弱的经济新闻会促使投资者买入股票、大宗商品和企业债务，因为他们相信利率政策将会保持宽松，或者就如这个夏天的美联储一样，皆大欢喜地保持不变。

The dousing of an imminent shift higher in US borrowing costs has followed signs of a firmer appetite for risk taking this month, notably across emerging markets, commodities and credit.

美国借贷成本即将升高的前景被浇灭之前，本月有迹象表明人们的冒险意愿增大，尤其是在新兴市场、大宗商品和信贷领域。

This week, global equities as measured by the FTSE All World Index, oil prices, currencies led by Brazil and Russia all registered fresh peaks for the year. Measures of US investment grade and high yield credit also reached their richest levels for 2016, with the average yield on Moody’s BAA index back under 4.60 per cent for the first time in more than a year.

上周，全球股票（用富时环球指数(FTSE All World Index)衡量）、油价、由巴西和俄罗斯领头的新兴市场货币，都创下了今年以来的新高。美国投资级和高收益率信贷的指标也达到了2016年迄今的最高水平，其中穆迪(Moody’s) BAA级债券收益率指数一年多以来首次回落至4.6%以下。

As Wall Street took a shot at setting a new record high for the S&P 500 and oil’s momentum sought traction beyond $50 a barrel, a canary in the form of the 10-year Treasury note yield, was also chirping.

随着华尔街把标普500指数(S&P 500)推向新高，随着油价寻求在每桶50美元上方获得进一步上涨势头，作为“煤矿坑里的金丝雀”（意指报警器——译者注）的10年期美国国债收益率也在发出轻松愉快的啁啾声。

Slipping below 1.70 per cent, the benchmark yield has broken through the floor that prevailed in the wake of market stress peaking back in February. Given how we have moved well beyond the new year fears over global growth prospects, the message from the bond market appears to challenge the current mood in riskier assets such as equities.

作为基准，这种国债的收益率下滑至1.7%以下，跌破了市场压力在今年2月达到顶峰以来维持至今的下限。考虑到我们早已摆脱了今年开年时对全球增长前景的恐惧，来自债券市场的讯息似乎在挑战目前市场对股票等风险较高资产的情绪。

In a world where $10.4tn of bonds currently yield below zero, and the average yield of German government debt for the first time this week turned negative, US Treasury and corporate paper stands out as a high yielder.

目前有价值10.4万亿美元的债券的收益率在零以下，德国国债的平均收益率上周也首次转为负值，在这样的背景下，美国国债和企业票据作为高收益资产脱颖而出。

Foreign demand for Treasury bonds sold last month was robust, and a strong reception for this week’s sale of 10-year notes suggests no shortage of buyers outside the US.

上月，外国对美国国债的需求十分强劲，而上周10年期国债发行所受到的热烈追捧似乎表明，美国境外不乏买家。

Richer US Treasury prices clearly reflect the global hunt for yield and the distortions created by negative interest rate policy in Japan and Europe.

美国国债价格上升，显然反映出全球对收益率的寻求，以及日本和欧洲的负利率政策造成的扭曲。

For investors embracing risk assets, the grim message of ever lower government bond yields can thus be downplayed. Rather than suggesting a sharp economic downturn looms, the risk chasers can contend that top tier government bond yields are artificially low. Moreover, the paltry yields on offer pale beside the current dividends of companies.

因此，对于拥抱风险资产的投资者而言，不必太注重政府债券收益率越来越低所传递的阴暗讯息。与其说债券收益率极低暗示了一场急剧的经济低迷扑面而来，风险追逐者可以认为，政府债券收益率是被人为压低的。况且，与当前的公司股息相比，这些收益率显得微不足道。

It means a falling 10-year Treasury yield can be reconciled with swelling risk appetite that views May’s sudden deceleration in US job growth as a typical mid-cycle blip, rather than a harbinger of something more troubling.

这意味着，可以认为10年期美国国债收益率下滑与风险偏好的上升之间并无矛盾；风险偏好上升是因为投资者将5月美国就业增长突然减速视为典型的周期中段波动，而非令人更为不安局面的先兆。

That argument, helped by firmer oil prices and a weaker dollar, set the tone until Thursday, when the steady shift lower in top tier US, German and UK bond yields finally placed a brake on risk appetite for equities and emerging markets.

在油价上扬和美元走软的帮助下，这种观点确立了基调——直到上周四，那天评级最高的美国、德国及英国债券收益率稳步下滑，终于刹住了对股票和新兴市场的风险偏好。

Market trends, however always fluctuate and flirt with moments of doubt.

然而，市场趋势总是在波动的，而且不时会出现疑虑。

Certainly, buyers of gold and Treasury debt are also looking at falling US corporate profits, lofty valuations and the declining quality of company debt around the world — particularly in China and the US — as classic late-cycle warnings flags. At some point, winter beckons for the shareholder friendly era of corporate dividends and buybacks.

购买黄金及美国国债的买家肯定也将美国企业利润下滑、估值高企以及世界各地企业债务质量下降——特别是在中国和美国——视为经典的周期末段警告标志。在某个时间点，股东友好的企业派息和股票回购时代将迎来“寒冬”。

Before such a reckoning emerges, the general trend of rising risk appetite appears to have further room to run even if there will be potholes and bumps in the road. Talk of a melt-up in equities, that steadily pushes up prices, echoes among research analysts and investors.

在这样的清算时刻到来之前，风险偏好上升的总体趋势似乎还有进一步空间，即便前方道路有坑洼和颠簸。有关股票“融涨”——即各种因素稳步推高股价——的谈论在研究分析师和投资者当中引发共鸣。

With three weeks remaining in the current quarter, investors whose performance has lagged behind their benchmarks can be expected to buy and push valuations higher.

鉴于本季度仅剩3周时间，可以预期，业绩落后于基准的投资机构将买入资产，从而进一步推高估值。

True, a UK rejection of EU membership later this month will test risk appetite, however the global consequences of an actual Brexit appear limited, while that outcome would also prompt monetary easing from the Bank of England, with other central banks standing ready to shore up sentiment.

没错，本月晚些时候英国退出欧盟将考验投资者的风险偏好，然而，英国退欧的全球后果似乎有限，同时，这一结果也将促使英国央行(Bank of England)实施货币宽松政策，而其他央行也准备扶持信心。

Of all the central banks, a relatively silent Fed this summer is the most influential factor for asset prices, as it will keep any potential dollar rally at bay.

所有央行之中，美联储今夏的相对沉默是对资产价格影响最大的因素，因为它将阻止美元反弹。

As Alan Ruskin at Deutsche notes: ‘’The market will need some convincing that a July rate hike is warranted. An alternative delay in Fed tightening to September or December feels like a long time to wait for the most obvious risk negative event to intercede.’’

正如德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的艾伦•拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)指出的：“市场将需要一些令人信服的证据，证明7月加息是有道理的。另一个可能是美联储将政策收紧延迟至9月或12月，那感觉像是等待很长时间让最明显的负面风险事件证明谨慎有理。”