双语财经新闻 第46期:局势动荡金价就一定会上涨吗?(1)
With the recent earthquake in Japan and the civil war in Libya, many investors expected gold to soar easily to $1,500. Experts said, however, that gold does not necessarily rise during wars or crises; it all depends on a series of factors including the economic context of the time.
“The generalization is, there is no generalization. When there is a catajstrophe1 people sell everything,” said Mark Leibovit，a chief market strategist for VRTrader. com. “I’m not banking on the disasters. When bad news hits, I’m afraid everything will drop,” he told Kitco News.
首席市场策略师马克?莱博维 奇说规律就是没有规律。一场灾害发生后,人 们会抛售任何东西。”他在接受金拓新闻采访时 说我不会把宝压在灾难上，要是有什么坏消息 的话，恐怕所有的投资品种都会大跌。”In a March 15 report, HSBC said, “Historically, estimates of drops in commodity demand due to natural disasters or other economy tend to be exaggerated. This was the case with previous earthquakes in Japan, attacks in the US on September 11, 2001, and the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean,”
在3月15日的一份报告中，汇丰说“从历史上 看，由于自然灾害或其他经济原因而引发的大宗 商品价格下滑预期，其反应总是过度的。以前的 日本大地震、911恐怖袭击以及2004年印度洋海晡 都无一例外。”
The yellow metal has become a new currency but that doesn’t prevent it from dropping when there is a disaster said Leibovit. “Basically since 2001 if you look at the stock market and gold they more or less track each other which is sort of interesting you’d think it would go the other way，” he said.
黄色金属已经成为了一种新的货币，但是在 灾难发生时，并不能防止其价格下滑。“自2001年 以来，金市和股市基本上或多或少都会相互追 踪——这种现象很有趣，因为大部分人会认为两者应该呈现负相关性”，他说。Leibovit was surprised by gold’s performance during the crisis of October 1987 when stock markets around the world crashed. “Gold really didn’t do that well it had an initial pop but it really didn’t provide the hedge I wish I could tell you categorically that gold is a hedge, he said.
莱博维奇对1987年股市暴跌期间的金价走 势感到吃惊。“黄金的表现并不怎么好，黄金一开 始小幅上扬但是并没有提供很好的对冲性,我希 望我能告诉你’从分类上说，黄金是一种风险对冲 资产。，’他说。The price of gold was pegged in London at $465.50 on Friday, Oct 16, explained technical analyst, Peter DeGraaf. “When the stock market dropped precipitously on (Black) Monday October 19, gold initially rose to $481.00, as investors sold stocks and searched for a “safe haven.” Surprisingly, the following day the price fell back to $464.30, as the need for cash became greater than the demand for a “safe haven.” When things settled down gold slowly rose, to end the year at $484.00,” said DeGraaf.
10月16日周五，伦敦盘黄金价格在465.5美元 左右企稳，技术分析师皮特?格拉夫解释说。‘‘而 在10月19日黑色星期一,股市突然直线下跌时，投 资人纷纷抛售股票，同时为资金寻求避险天堂，此 时，黄金暴涨至481美元。而让人大跌眼镜的是，第 二天黄金价格又回落至464.30美元，原因是人们 对资金的需求大于避险需求。当事件有所平息， 金价又开始缓慢回升，最终当年的收盘价报在484.00美元,”格拉夫说。The conclusion drawn from gold’s reaction to the market crash in 1987 is that the price of gold in the long term is dependent upon the integrity of the currencies that represent gold, rather than upon the political and economic events that dominate the news of the day, said DeGraaf.
从黄金价格对1987年股市暴跌的反应得出的结论是，黄金价格从长期而言依 靠的是体现黄金价格的货币的整体性，而不是当天发生的重大政治和经济事件。George Gero, Senior Vice President Financial Consultant for RBC Wealth Management said it all depends on the type of crisis. Gero reflectsback on the Iraqi war. “The next day after the shock and awe bombing, oil dropped $40 bucks, and so did gold，” he said.
RBC财富管理高级副总裁兼金融咨询师乔治?罗格说，这要看危机是什么类型 的。罗格回顾了伊拉克战争开始时的情况。“第二天恐慌情绪爆发，石油大跌40美元,黄金也下跌了40美元。”He cited last summer’s debt crisis in Greece as another example, noting that gold dropped $50 dollars that day. “Everybody thought that the ECB and Greece were going to sell gold to finance the bailout2 which didn’t happen. So the behavior of gold during a crisis depends on the type of crisis and whether gold is needed for liquidity purposes to finance war or a bailout,” he said.
他又以去年夏天希腊爆发债务危机时的情况为例,当天黄金下跌50美元。“所 有人都认为ECB和希腊政府准备抛售黄金为援助方寒提供财政支持，而事实上，根 本没有发生这样的事情。所以危机期间的黄金表现取决于这场危机的类型,以及这 场危机是否需要黄金作为流动资产,来资助战争或是援助行动。”Gero also looked back to the assassination of Egyptian president Anwar Sadat in 1981. “The media kept telling the world there was no assassination until the next afternoon. Gold acted totally contrary to what everyone thought because of the withholding of the actual assassination news. ”
罗格还回顾了 1981年埃及总统安瓦尔?萨达特遇刺身亡的事件，“直到第二天 下午前，媒体还一直对外声称根本没有刺杀这回事儿。金价的表现完全与人们预期 相反，正是因为对刺杀事件的隐瞒不发。”So in the wake of the Libyan civil war and Japanese earthquake, why has gold not moved upwards? Gero replied, “The ultimate safe haven has turned out to be the liquidity and the safety of the United States and Canada.”He said that gold has been so well publicized and so well -owned that people are now looking at silver as having more volatility left than gold.
所以就利比亚内战和日本大地震而言，为什么金价没有大幅上扬呢？罗格回答 道:“最终，这个原先的避险天堂成为了保障美国和加拿大流动性和安全性的工具。” 他说,黄金已经很大众化了,现在人们更青睐白银，因为其上涨空间比黄金大得多。
