投资者押注美欧货币政策分化
The dollar hit an eight-month peak against other leading currencies yesterday, intensifying pressure on emerging markets as investors raised their bets on a “great divergence” in international monetary policy this month.
美元对其他主要货币的汇率昨日升至8个月高点，加大了新兴市场面临的压力。投资者加大了对本月国际货币政策发生“大分化”的押注。
Investors are preparing for a pivotal few weeks where the cross-Atlantic policy gulf between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve is expected to widen drastically, stirring up monetary cross-currents that will set the tone for 2016.
投资者开始为关键的几周做准备。在这几周里，大西洋两岸欧洲央行(ECB)和美联储(Fed)之间的政策分化预计将大幅加剧，激起为2016年定调的交叉潮流。
The ECB is on Thursday expected to act on the promise by Mario Draghi, the bank’s president, to “do what we must” to stimulate growth and drive inflation higher, potentially ramping up its quantitative easing programme.
周四，欧洲央行预计将兑现行长马里奥德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的承诺，“采取我们必须采取的一切措施”刺激增长并推高通胀水平，加大量化宽松力度。
However, investors also predict the Fed will begin tightening policy later in December for the first time since 2006. The looming divergence has encouraged investors to sell the euro against the dollar and buy eurozone equities.
然而，投资者也预计，美联储将在12月晚些时候启动自2006年以来的第一次政策收紧。正在逼近的货币政策分化促使投资者卖出欧元、买入美元，并购买欧元区股票。
The dollar index, measuring the currency against its peers, reached its highest level since hitting a 12-year peak in March and was on course for its best month since the start of the year. In turn, the euro has slipped to a seven-month low against the dollar.
衡量美元对其他主要货币汇率变化的美元指数，创下了自今年3月创下12年高点以来的最高水平，11月注定成为自今年初以来美元最强势的月份。欧元兑美元汇率跌至7个月低点。
Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman said this week was “among the most important” of the year. “Rarely is there such a confluence of events in a short period that will have far-reaching implications for investors that are known ahead of time and have been discussed so extensively.’’
布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman, BBH)的马克钱德勒(Marc Chandler)表示，本周是全年“最重要的一星期之一”。“在很短时间内发生这么多将对投资者具有深远影响的事件，而这些事件大家提前就已知晓并进行过如此广泛的讨论，这种情况并不多见。”
Highlighting what analysts have dubbed the “great divergence”, the German two-year Bund yield is trading at a negative 0.41 per cent, while the US two-year Treasury yield yesterday climbed to a new five-year high of 0.95 per cent. The difference between the two is now the highest in almost a decade.
凸显分析师们所称的“大分化”的迹象是，昨日两年期德国国债的收益率为-0.41%，而两年期美国国债的收益率攀升至0.95%的五年新高。目前，两者收益率之差为近10年内的最大水平。
The dollar’s strength could prove painful to the developing world, where many companies and some countries have borrowed heavily in the US currency. Many analysts expect their mounting debt burden to prove a big challenge for emerging markets. The FTSE EM index fell another 3.6 per cent in November and EM currencies fell for the sixth month in the past seven.
美元走高可能给发展中世界带来痛苦。那里的许多公司和一些国家借入了高额美元债务。许多分析师预计，不断升高的债务负担将对新兴市场构成严峻挑战。11月，富时新兴市场指数(FTSE EM index)进一步下跌3.6%，而新兴市场货币在过去7个月里的第6个月下跌。
