中国经济放缓是阵痛还是深层衰退的开始

HONG KONG — The short-term economic signals out of China have not been reassuring.

香港——中国的短期经济信号让人心存不安。

Policy makers bungled a stock market bailout over the summer. The central bank made a surprise devaluation of the currency. Growth slipped to its slowest pace since 2009.

政策制定者今年夏天在A股救市行动中表现拙劣。央行突然让货币贬值。中国经济增长下滑到了自2009年以来最低水平。

These developments rattled global markets and unnerved investors. But the bigger question is, what, if anything, has changed in the long-term outlook for China’s growth?

这些状况在全球市场引发了躁动，令投资者感到不安。但更大的问题是，中国经济增长的长期前景有变化吗？如果有的话，是什么？

Some experts on emerging markets look at China’s sputtering growth rate and see signs of deeper problems ahead. Others are undeterred, taking China’s current economic deceleration in stride. To them, it is a natural and necessary part of the switch to a more sustainable development path.

新兴市场领域的一些专家研究了中国的增长率下滑，认为有迹象表明将来会出现更深层的问题。另外一些人则态度从容，对中国目前的经济减速不以为意。他们认为，要转换到更加可持续发展的道路上，这是一个自然而必要的过程。

“The last couple of decades were all about ever-faster growth in everything in China, and the next couple of decades will be about slower growth rates in almost everything,” said Andy Rothman, a San Francisco-based strategist at Matthews Asia, one of the biggest investment firms in the United States dedicated to Asia.

“过去几十年的主题是，中国的一切都在进行着前所未有的快速增长，而未来几十年的主题是，几乎一切增长都在放缓，”旧金山铭基亚洲(Matthews Asia)的投资策略师安迪·罗思曼(Andy Rothman)表示。铭基亚洲是美国最大的专注于亚洲市场的投资公司之一。

“We need to get comfortable with that,” he added. “The Communist Party is comfortable with that, but over here, we’re freaking out about it.”

“我们需要习惯这种情况，”他说。“共产党就很泰然自若，而我们在这边惊慌失措。”

Indeed, the once-torrid growth in industrial and manufacturing output has been cooling off for several years, falling under 7 percent. China’s leaders have just set an annual growth target of 6.5 percent in the next five-year plan, running through 2020. But after decades of debt-driven investment, economists are trying to size up whether China can shift to a new model in which consumer demand becomes the main engine of economic growth, as in most developed countries.

事实上，中国工业和制造业产出虽然曾经有过高速增长，但最近几年已经降温，滑落到了7%以下。中国领导人刚刚为持续到2020年的下一个五年规划设定了6.5%的年增长目标，但中国几十年来都是用债务推动投资，经济学家们正在尝试估算中国是否可以转型到一个新的模式，让消费者需求成为经济增长的主要推动力，就像大多数发达国家一样。

Bob Browne, the chief investment officer at Northern Trust in Chicago, describes the question of the Chinese consumer as “one of the fundamental long-term decisions an investor has to make about China.”

鲍勃·布朗(Bob Browne)是芝加哥北方信托(Northern Trust)的首席投资官，他说中国消费者的问题是“面对中国的投资者必须做出的一项根本性的长远决策”。

“You can’t be agnostic or neutral on it: Is that transition to a services-based economy, as the middle class expands, going to continue inexorably — with bumps along the way — or not?”

“向服务型经济转型的过程，是会随着中产阶层的增多继续前进，即使有颠簸也无法阻挡呢，还是不会？对于这个问题，你不能不在乎，也不能模棱两可。”

Given the volatile short-term outlook, investors have been cashing out of Chinese-related stocks in recent months, part of a broader sell-off that has affected most emerging markets.

由于短期前景不稳定，近几个月来，投资者纷纷套现中国概念股，而更加广泛的抛售已经对大多数新兴市场造成了冲击。

Selling pressure appears to have stabilized in recent weeks, but as of late October, the one-year estimated flow out of emerging market stocks totaled nearly $70 billion, according to data from EPFR Global, a fund tracker, as cited by Citigroup. Of that global total, money flowing out of funds in China and Hong Kong was more than $30 billion.

最近几周，卖压似乎已经逐步稳定，但花旗集团(Citigroup)援引追踪基金动向的EPFR Global提供的数据称，到10月末，新兴市场股市一年来流出的资金预计达到将近700亿美元。其中，从中国和香港基金市场流出的资金超过了300亿美元。

In the near term, investors are worried about China’s growth. In recent monthly surveys of fund managers conducted by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, a potential recession in China was cited as the biggest outlying risk to the global economy. In the bank’s October survey, 39 percent of respondents said China was the biggest such risk, though that was down from 54 percent in September.

短期内，投资者对中国的经济增长感到担心。美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)最近对基金经理进行的月度调查显示，中国的潜在衰退被列为全球经济最大的外部风险。该银行10月的调查显示，39%的被调查者表示，中国是最大的外部风险，尽管这一比率已经低于9月的54%。

Mr. Browne is among those who see China’s slowdown as a near-term risk, but his longer-term faith in its ability to make the transition to a consumption-led growth model is unchanged.

一些人将中国经济的放缓视作短期威胁，布朗就是其中之一，但他长期以来对中国有能力向消费驱动型增长模式过渡的信心没有改变。

“Clearly with China, it’s more of a top-down-driven economy, but so were Korea and Japan for much of their postwar development,” he said. “That transition from a manufacturing- and investment-dependent economy to a services and consumer-led economy is fairly consistent.”

“很明显，中国更多的是一种自上而下驱动的经济模式，但韩国和日本在战后大部分时间里也是如此，”他说。“从依靠制造及投资的经济模式向服务及消费驱动模式的转变是相当稳固的。”

China has a long way to go. Its state-directed economic model has overemphasized investment for years, and this has made growth increasingly unbalanced. The result is that private consumption today accounts for only around 38 percent of China’s gross domestic product. That is a sharp contrast to the industrialized nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, where consumption on average accounts for more than 60 percent of G.D.P.

中国还有很长的路要走。国家主导的经济模式多年来过度强调投资，致使发展愈发不平衡。结果导致个人消费如今只占GDP的38%。这与经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment)的工业化国家形成鲜明对比，这些国家的个人消费平均占到GDP的60%多。

Addressing this imbalance poses pressing risks for China. Because of a reliance on state investment — often in wasteful projects or loss-making industries — the country accrued record levels of debt, which stands at nearly 300 percent of G.D.P.

应对这种不平衡的状况给中国带来了紧迫的风险。由于依赖国家投资——通常是浪费资金的工程或亏损企业——中国累积了创纪录的债务，相当于GDP的300%。

That debt burden looks increasingly precarious as economic growth slows, raising the risk of deflation, or falling prices, which can lead companies to curtail investing and individuals to spend less. Deflation also makes debt relatively more expensive to repay — even at a time when revenue and profit at many businesses are crumpling.

随着经济的放缓，这种债务负担似乎愈发危险，加剧了通货紧缩或物价下跌的风险，这可能会导致公司削减投资，个人减少开支。通货紧缩还致使债务相对增加——尽管与此同时很多公司的收入和利润在骤减。

“Given the economy is slowing down and deflation is a major risk, if the government cannot push through necessary reforms, China may well follow the Japanese path of having a balance-sheet recession,” said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Corporation in Hong Kong. He was referring to a type of recession in which spending on debt repayment takes priority over making new purchases or investments.

“鉴于经济发展放缓，通货紧缩带来重大风险，如果政府无法推动必要的改革，中国可能会步日本后尘，产生资产负债表衰退，”澳新银行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中华区驻香港首席经济师刘利刚说。在他所指的这种衰退中，偿债在支出中将优先于新的购买或投资。

Mr. Liu forecasts that private consumption will rise to about 44 percent of G.D.P. in the next five years — a slow but significant shift because consumption is expected to outpace the economy’s general growth rate, replacing investment as the key engine.

刘利刚预测，未来五年，个人消费在GDP中所占的比例将会达到44%，这是一个缓慢但重要的转变，因为消费将超越经济的总体增长率，代替投资成为关键引擎。

This forecast, like others that see China making the gradual shift to a consumption-led growth model, rests in part on changes underway in how ordinary citizens manage their finances.

还有人认为中国正在逐步向消费主导的增长模式转变，与他们一样，这种预测部分基于普通公民管理资金的方式的变化。

On average, Chinese households save roughly 30 percent of their disposable income, the most of any major country. By comparison, the net saving rate is nearly 6 percent in the United States, 7 percent in Europe and just over 2 percent in Japan.

中国家庭平均会把大致30%的可支配收入存起来，这个比例比其他任何大国都高。相比之下，美国的净储蓄率差不多是6%，欧洲是7%，日本略高于2%。

But there are signs that a younger, urbanized generation — one that has not experienced the privation of the past — is taking a less conservative approach to spending than their parents or grandparents did.

但有迹象表明，城市化了的年轻一代没经历过以前的贫困，对花钱的态度也不像其父母或祖父母那么保守。

That includes people like Yu Ying, 22, who dyes her hair blond and works as a hostess and greeter for corporate functions and other events, making as much as 6,000 renminbi, or about $940, a month.

22岁的于颖（音）便是这个群体中的一员。把头发染成黄色的她给企业聚会及其他活动当服务员和迎宾员，每个月最多能挣6000元。

Asked about her saving and spending habits while on a recent shopping trip to Sanlitun, a popular Beijing neighborhood of cafes and shops, Ms. Yu said: “I don’t save. I can’t save any.”

前不久被问及存钱和花钱习惯时，于颖说：“我不存钱，一分钱都存不下。”当时，她正在三里屯购物。那里是北京一个备受欢迎的地区，遍布着咖啡馆和店铺。

Ms. Yu moved to Beijing from the northeastern province of Jilin three years ago, and says she spends about half of her income on cosmetics and clothes. She spends a further 1,800 renminbi a month on rent in an apartment that she shares with friends.

三年前，于颖从吉林来到北京。她说自己大约一半的收入花在了化妆品和衣服上。她和朋友合租了一套公寓，每月的房租又要花去1800元。

“I also spend money on going out with friends and having dinner with them,” she added.

“和朋友出去玩、吃饭也要花钱，”她接着说。

But even if younger Chinese are more free-spending, analysts say getting most Chinese to open their wallets more will require financial and other regulatory overhauls that Beijing has so far shied from undertaking. Among the priorities are easing or abolishing the nationwide system of household registration, or hukou.

但分析人士称，虽然中国的年轻一代花钱更随意，但让大部分中国人增加消费需要进行金融和其他监管改革。不过迄今为止，中央政府一直回避相关改革。首当其冲的包括放宽或废除全国性的户口制度。

The system as it stands generally prevents new migrants from the countryside from gaining access to urban school placements, health care and other social services, which can be provided only in one’s official place of residence. Analysts say liberalizing this system would deliver a tremendous stimulus to labor mobility and also help reduce the need for migrants to save so much to meet health care and other costs.

现实情况是，户口制度通常会妨碍来自乡下的新一代民工入读城里的学校，享受医疗保健和其他社会服务。只有官方居住地才提供这些服务。分析人士称，放开户口制度会极大地刺激劳动力的流动性，还有助于降低农民工为考虑医疗保健和其他花销而存钱的需求。

“China needs to let people live where they can make the most money, which obviously they don’t do now,” said Derek M. Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

“中国需要允许人们在赚钱最多的地方生活，他们目前显然不能这样，”华盛顿美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的驻所学者史剑道(Derek Scissors)说。

The risk of failing to execute on these and other reforms, he said, is falling into a phenomenon known as the middle-income trap, where growth and earnings reach a plateau before a country can become broadly wealthy and achieve developed-nation status.

他说，不实行这些和其他改革的风险是可能会陷入所谓的中等收入陷阱，即在国家实现总体富裕，变成发达国家之前，增长和收入出现停滞。

“That’s what I mean by stagnation: China doesn’t continue to climb the ladder of prosperity; it stalls,” he said.

“我说的停滞就是这个意思：中国不继续变得更加繁荣，而是陷入停顿，”他说。

“Of course, the Chinese have the capacity to reinvigorate the economy,” he added. “But they’re not implementing those kinds of reforms, and you cannot be a heavily indebted, aging middle-income country and continue to do well.”

“当然，中国有能力重振经济，”他接着说。“但他们不是在实行这类改革，你不可能既是一个严重负债、人口日渐老龄化的中等收入国家，又要继续表现优秀。”

China’s leaders reject suggestions that the economy could stagnate, pledging to remain watchful against an even faster downturn by undertaking interest rate cuts, infrastructure spending and targeted loans to favored projects.

中国领导人否认经济可能会停滞的说法，承诺通过降息、基础设施开支和面向扶持项目的定向贷款，来预防经济更快下滑

“The fundamentals underpinning a stable Chinese economy have not changed,” Li Keqiang, the prime minister, told a gathering of the World Economic Forum in September in Dalian, a city in northeastern China.

“中国经济的基本面没有改变，”中国总理李克强9月在大连的世界经济论坛上对与会者说。

“We will be fully capable to deal with the situation once signs indicate that the economy is sliding out of the reasonable range,” he added. “I’m not making an empty promise when I say that the Chinese economy will not head for a ‘hard landing.’”

“一旦出现滑出合理区间的迹象，我们将有足够的能力来应对，”他接着说，“中国经济不会出现‘硬着陆’，这不是空话。”