与普京打交道的四点建议大纲
Vladimir Putin’s regime describes itself by its grudges.
弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)政权在描述自我时带着满腔怨恨。
The Russian president harbours a lengthy list of grievances and imagined slights, reaching from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the expansion of the EU and Nato, to US military interventions in the Middle East.
这位俄罗斯总统怀揣着一份冗长的清单，记录着他的不满和想象中受到的怠慢——从苏联(Soviet Union)解体到欧盟(EU)和北约(Nato)的扩张、再到美国对中东的军事干预。
The most personAlly wounding, though, comprised a few words uttered a couple of years ago by US President Barack Obama.
不过，最带有个人色彩的伤害是几年前美国总统巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)说过的一些话。
Mr Putin craves respect.
普京渴望得到尊重。
Russia, Mr Obama said, was no more than a regional power whose revanchist military intervention in Ukraine was evidence of weakness rather than a demonstration of prowess.
奥巴马说，俄罗斯不过是一个地区强国，它在乌克兰复仇式的军事干预是软弱、而非强大的表现。
Russian actions were a problem, but not the biggest threat to America’s national security.
俄罗斯的举动带来麻烦，但并不是美国国家安全面临的最大威胁。
You could hear the screams of anguish in the Kremlin.
你能听到克里姆林宫撕心裂肺的怒吼。
The assessment was at once right and wrong.
该评价既对也不对。
By almost every metric — economic, demographic, social or technological — Russia faces inexorable decline.
几乎在所有方面——经济、人口、社会或科技——俄罗斯都面临着无可挽回的衰落。
The US president, though, underestimated Moscow’s willingness to use its still formidable military.
不过，奥巴马低估了俄罗斯使用其仍然令人生畏的军事力量的意愿。
Mr Putin is a leader ready to take risks at a time when the west prizes caution above all else.
当西方对谨慎的重视高于其他一切时，普京是那种随时准备冒险的领导人。
Mr Obama missed, too, the link between adventurism and hurt national pride.
奥巴马还忽视了冒险主义和受伤害的民族自豪感之间的关联。
If Mr Putin wants anything on the global stage, it is to be treated as the leader of a power that can sit down as an equal with the US and China.
如果说普京想要在国际舞台上获得某种东西的话，那便是被当作能与美国和中国平起平坐的强国的领导人对待。
Barring a political earthquake and a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump, November’s US election will not change the essential parameters of the relationship between Russia and the west.
除非发生一场政治地震、共和党总统候选人唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)获胜，11月的美国大选不会改变俄罗斯和西方关系的基本参数。
The reset offered by Mr Obama at the beginning of his presidency has been lost to the annexation of Crimea, the occupation of eastern Ukraine and the raining down of Russian bombs on the Syrian city of Aleppo.
奥巴马在上任初期提出的重启美俄关系的策略，败给了俄罗斯的一系列举动——吞并克里米亚、侵占乌克兰东部地区以及对叙利亚阿勒颇市(Aleppo)狂轰滥炸。
True, the Russian president still has admirers in the west.
不错，西方仍然有普京的崇拜者。
They extend beyond Mr Trump.
不光是特朗普。
Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Britain’s Labour party, has spent a political lifetime marching against wars fought by the west.
英国工党领袖杰里米.科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)在整个政治生涯里都在反对西方进行的战争。
He cannot bring himself to condemn the Russian slaughter of civilians in Aleppo.
他做不到指责俄罗斯对阿勒颇平民的屠杀。
He is in the company of Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, and pro-Moscow fascist parties in Hungary and Greece.
和他一样的还有法国国民阵线(National Front)领导人马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)，以及匈牙利和希腊亲俄罗斯的法西斯主义政党。
Far left thus meets far right.
极左翼和极右翼在这点上不谋而合。
It is evident to just about everyone else, however, that the interventions in Ukraine and Syria are expressions of a broader Kremlin strategy.
然而，几乎其他所有人都清楚，俄罗斯在乌克兰和叙利亚的军事干预是克里姆林宫一项更广泛战略的表现。
Regime survival and hostility towards the west are two sides of the same coin.
维系政权和敌视西方是同一枚硬币的两面。
Support for populist parties of left and right in Europe, the subversion of democracy in formerly communist states and the cyber attacks on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign are all of the same piece.
支持欧洲或左或右的民粹主义政党、颠覆前共产主义国家的民主制度、以及对希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)总统竞选团队发动网络攻击，本质都一样。
Mr Putin’s target is the liberal international order.
普京的目标是自由国际秩序。
He wants a great power carve-up that restores Russian suzerainty over its near-abroad and flatters its relevance in global affairs.
他希望由大国来瓜分世界，恢复俄罗斯对周边邻国的宗主地位，并凸显俄罗斯在国际事务中的重要性。
There is no off-the-peg response available to the west.
对于西方来说，目前没有现成的应对办法。
Useful lessons can be drawn from the cold war — particularly about the importance of things such as predictable and calibrated responses —
西方国家可以从冷战中吸取有益教训——特别是有关可预测的标准化回应策略的重要性。
and diplomats and strategists need to relearn some of the old rules for managing great power relations.
同时，外交官和策略家需要重新学习一些有关管理大国关系的老规矩。
But, pace Mr Putin, Russia is not the Soviet Union.
但是，尊敬的普京先生，俄罗斯不是苏联。
What the US and its allies can usefully do is establish principles to frame a reset grounded in realism.
美国及其盟友可以采取的有效办法是，确立一些原则，拟定一项务实的重启战略。
They should start with resolve, consistency, engagement and respect.
首先要从四点做起：决心、一致性、接触和尊重。
Resolve is the most important.
决心是最重要的一点。
Mr Putin is an opportunist rather than a grand strategist, a leader looking to probe and test the weaknesses of adversaries.
普京是机会主义者，而不是大战略家，他伺机试探着敌人的弱点。
The west’s mistake has been to worry that deterrence could be seen as provocation.
西方的失误是担心威慑会被视为挑衅。
By failing to show resolve, it has heightened rather than defused tensions.
由于没能表现出决心，它激化、而非缓和了紧张关系。
The forward deployment of Nato forces in eastern Europe has gone some way to provide public reassurance.
北约部队在东欧的前沿部署，在某种程度上使公众安心。
But Washington should be sending unequivocal messages about lines — in Syria and Europe — that cannot be crossed without consequences.
但是华盛顿方面应该发出明确的信息，明确其在叙利亚和欧洲的底线——俄罗斯一旦跨过这条线就要承担后果。
The second ingredient is consistency.
第二点是一致性。
Mr Putin is adept at exploiting division and hesitation.
普京擅长利用分歧和犹豫。
European states, in particular, need to show that they can put differences to one side in treating with Moscow.
欧洲各国尤其需要表现出他们在对待莫斯科方面可以放下分歧。
Instead of rolling over economic sanctions every few months — each occasion providing an opportunity for Russia to sow dissent — the EU should change the dynamic by declaring them open-ended.
与目前每隔几个月便重启一轮经济制裁——每一次都给俄罗斯提供挑拨离间的机会——的做法相反，欧盟应该宣布无限期制裁来改变这一现状。
They will be lifted only when the Kremlin changes its behaviour.
只有当克里姆林宫改变做法时，制裁才能解除。
Consistency also demands a series of graduated responses to hostile acts.
一致性也要求西方在面对敌对行动时采取一系列递进的应对办法。
Moscow should know that cyber attacks and subversion will elicit a response, whether travel restrictions on those closely associated with the regime or tighter economic sanctions.
莫斯科方面应该明白，网络攻击和颠覆行为将招致西方回应，无论是针对那些与政府有密切关系的人士的旅行限制还是不断加强的经济制裁。
Engagement is a word often used by those whose real agenda is submission.
那些真心想屈服的人士，经常把接触这个词挂在嘴上。
Mr Corbyn comes to mind.
这让人一下子就想到了科尔宾。
But tough-minded management of the relationship should not preclude recognition of mutual interests.
但是，以坚定的态度管理双方关系，不应妨碍对共同利益的承认。
Where the two sides can co-operate usefully — say, in countering terrorism or nuclear proliferation — the west should take the initiative in promoting joint action.
在双方可以有效合作的领域——比方说在打击恐怖主义或阻止核扩散方面——西方在推进共同行动方面应该抓住主动权。
Finally, there is that word respect.
最后，还要尊重对方。
To say that Russia is weak in most of the dimensions of power is to state the obvious.
没错，在判断实力的大多数标准上，俄罗斯都很薄弱。
That does not mean it is wise for a US president publicly to confront a thin-skinned Russian president with the uncomfortable reality.
这并不意味着美国总统以令人不悦的事实公开叫板脸皮薄的俄罗斯总统是明智的行为。
Dissembling has a place in diplomacy.
看破而不说破是可取的外交策略。
The sadness is that, if Mr Putin continues to pretend Russia is a great power, it will eventually cease to be a great nation.
可悲的是，如果普京继续假装俄罗斯是世界强国，那么它是怎么也不会成为强国的。
