南海问题尖锐争端 中美皆应保持冷静

In the past 18 months, China has been enthusiasticAlly dredging sand from the bottom of the South China Sea and building artificial islands in disputed waters. During that period, according to Ashton Carter, US secretary of defence, Beijing has reclaimed more land than all the other claimants put together over the history of the dispute. True, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan have all built islands to bolster their territorial claims. Yet Beijing’s actions dwarf those efforts in both speed and scale.

过去18个月，中国一直在南中国海争议水域热火朝天地抽沙建造人工岛。根据美国国防部长阿什顿•卡特(Ashton Carter)的说法，这一时期中国填海造地的面积，超过了其他所有声索国自有争端以来造岛面积的总和。越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和台湾确实都曾人工造岛，以支持它们的领土主张。然而，与中国政府的行为相比，它们的举动不论在速度上还是规模上都相形见绌。

The exercise is being carried out in a state of secrecy. No one knows quite what China is up to nor what it hopes to achieve. The lack of transparency is unnerving given China’s territorial ambitions. With little or no basis in international law, it lays claim to virtually all of the South China Sea, asserting ownership of everything within a nine-dash line hugging the coast of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. One theory is that Beijing wants to build a runway in order to enforce an air defence identification zone over the entire sea. Beijing should desist from such an unnecessary provocation.

中国政府的这一举动，是在一种秘密状态下进行的。没有人确切知道中国计划做什么，希望达成什么目的。考虑到中国的领土野心，这种缺乏透明度的状况令人紧张。中国声称对紧贴菲律宾、马来西亚和越南海岸线的所谓“九段线”内的所有水域拥有主权，这块水域实质上涵盖了几乎整个南中国海。这一声明基本上没有或者说完全没有国际法依据。有一种看法认为，中国政府想要修建一座简易机场，以便在整个南中国海上空划设一个防空识别区。中国政府应该停止这种没有必要的挑衅行为。

In the run-up to this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, a regional security summit held in Singapore, Washington has begun to push back. This month, it flew a P-8 Poseidon aircraft — with a CNN television crew on board — over one of China’s new islands, eliciting a sharp warning from the Chinese navy. The US says it has detected artillery pieces and has reserved the right to sail warships within 12 miles of the newly created islands. This weekend, Mr Carter made it clear the US would “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” and said China’s act of “turning an underwater rock into an airfield” in no way conferred sovereign rights. Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo responded that Beijing’s actions were “justified, legitimate and reasonable” and were intended to provide “international public services”. His words will bring little comfort to the Asian nations that feel threatened by China’s behaviour.

周末在新加坡举行地区防务峰会“香格里拉对话”(Shangri-La Dialogue)之前，美国政府就已经对中国这一行为施加了压力。本月美国曾派出一架P-8A海神反潜机(P-8 Poseidon)，载着美国有线新闻网(CNN)的一个电视节目摄制组，飞越中国一个新造岛屿的上空，结果到中国海军严厉警告。美国表示，已经侦测到大炮等军事设施，并保留派遣军舰航行至新造岛屿12海里以内的权利。周末，卡特更明确地表示，美国将“在国际法许可的范围内飞行、航行及执行任务”，并表示中国“将水下礁石变成机场”的行为根本不能使其获得主权。中国海军上将孙建国则回应称，中国政府的举措“合理、合法、合情”，目的是提供“国际公益服务”。对于那些因中国所为而感觉受到威胁的亚洲国家来说，孙建国的说法不会起到什么安慰作用。

In the short term, both China and the US need to ratchet down tensions. All nations, including China, should give thought to Mr Carter’s call for a moratorium on new island construction. The atmosphere would then be more conducive to conclude a code of conduct that could prevent accidents and unnecessary provocations in future. China should also spell out exactly what its nine-dash claim means and explain what it hopes to achieve through island construction. It should reiterate its commitment to freedom of navigation. For its part, the US should stop grandstanding via the television cameras and should think hard before it sails warships past Chinese-built islands. The danger is that Beijing will feel obliged to respond in kind.

从短期来看，中美都需要做出缓和紧张局势的动作。各方应考虑卡特关于暂停建设新岛屿的呼吁，包括中国在内。届时气氛将更有利于缔结一项行为准则，以在未来防止突发事件和不必要的挑衅。中国也应阐明九段线声明的含义，并解释中方希望通过岛屿建设达成什么目的。中国还应重申对航行自由原则的承诺。美国则应停止在电视上哗众取宠，对于派军舰驶近中国新建岛屿的事情应三思。美方这类举动可能招致危险，因为北京方面将感到有必要作出回应。

In the longer run, there is a more fundamental issue at stake. China’s actions are nothing less than the beginning of a challenge to US dominance in the Pacific. Given its economic might, that is hardly surprising, nor need it be threatening. Most countries in the region want to strike a balance between the ambitions of a rising China and the comfort of US presence. At the moment, the two countries are on a slow, but unmistakable collision course. The trick will be to bind both China and the US into a wider, regional security framework that establishes rules of the road — and of the sea and the air. Such rules will have to have widespread support, including from the two most powerful Pacific powers themselves. The status quo is probably unsustainable. Yet it will not be in the region’s interests simply to replace the Pax Americana with a Pax Sinica.

从长远来看，这件事关系到一个更根本的问题。中国的行动仅仅是挑战美国在太平洋主导地位的开端。鉴于中国的经济实力，这点不足为奇，也不需要认为是个威胁。该地区的大多数国家都希望，在崛起的中国的雄心与美国存在的安慰感之间能够达到一种平衡。中美两国目前正处于缓慢的、但明显会冲突的路线上。解决之道是将中美两国捆绑到一个更广泛的地区安全架构中，制定海陆空的国际交通规则。这些规则必须得到广泛支持，包括两个最强大的太平洋大国本身。现状可能是无法持续的。然而以“中国治下的和平”(Pax Sinica)简单地取代“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)并不符合地区利益。