西方对俄制裁压垮欧亚联盟
Cracks are beginning to show in Vladimir Putin’s grand project to form a Eurasian union to rivAl the EU as Russia’s partners have so far balked at joining Moscow’s trade war with the west.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)组建“欧亚联盟”(Eurasian Union)以对抗欧盟的宏大项目开始出现裂痕，因为俄罗斯的合作伙伴迄今不愿加入莫斯科与西方的贸易战。When the presidents of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan gathered in May to sign the Eurasian Economic Union into existence, it was hailed as an “epochal” moment with geostrategic implications.
今年5月俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的总统齐聚一堂，签约成立欧亚经济联盟(Eurasian Economic Union)的时候，此举被誉为地缘战略的“划时代”时刻。“Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are moving towards a completely new level of co-operation,” Mr Putin said at a ceremony in Astana’s Palace of Independence, Kazakhstan.
普京在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳独立宫举行的一个庆典仪式上表示：“俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的合作正在迈向全新的水平。”
But when the Kremlin last month announced a ban on imports of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, and dairy products from Europe and other western countries, Belarus and Kazakhstan refused to follow suit.
但是，当克里姆林宫上月宣布禁止从欧洲和其他西方国家进口肉、鱼、水果、蔬菜和乳制品的时候，白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦拒绝跟随。
“This is our internal affair,” said Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. “We need Polish apples . . . We need some German delicacies.”
白俄罗斯总统亚历山大•卢卡申科(Alexander Lukashenko)表示：“这是我们的内部事务。我们需要波兰的苹果……我们需要一些德国美食。”Nursultan Nazarbayev, the Kazakh president, implicitly criticised Russian policy last week in Minsk, saying tit-for-tat sanctions were “a road to nowhere”.
哈萨克斯坦总统努尔苏丹•纳扎尔巴耶夫(Nursultan Nazarbayev)上周在明斯克含蓄批评了俄罗斯的政策，称针锋相对的制裁是“无果之路”。The Eurasian Economic Union is viewed by some in the west as an attempt by Mr Putin to recreate the Soviet Union.
欧亚经济联盟被西方某些人视为普京重建苏联的努力。Yet the lack of a common stance undermines its stated aim of creating a common market with free movement of capital, goods, services, and labour.
然而，由于缺乏共同立场，其宣示的创建一个资本、商品、服务和劳动力自由流动的共同市场的目标遭到削弱。“It’s very much a problem for relations inside the union,” says Dosym Satpayev, head of Risk Assessment Group, a think-tank in Almaty. “I am not sure that this integration project will exist in the long term.”
阿拉木图智库风险评估集团(Risk Assessment Group)掌门人多瑟姆•萨帕耶夫(Dosym Satpayev)表示：“欧亚联盟内部关系存在很大的问题。我不确定这个一体化项目是否会长期存在。”The strains have become clearer in recent days. Last week, amid growing concerns about Russia’s stand-off with the west, Mr Nazarbayev, who first proposed the idea of a union of post-Soviet states two decades ago, raised the possibility of leaving it.
近日这种内部紧张变得更为明显。上周，在各方越来越担心俄罗斯与西方对峙的背景下，纳扎尔巴耶夫提出了退出欧亚联盟的可能性。纳扎尔巴耶夫在20年前首先提出了后苏联国家成立联盟的想法。“Kazakhstan has the right to leave the Eurasian Economic Union,” he said in an interview with state television. “Kazakhstan will not enter an organisation which threatens our independence.”
他在接受官方电视台采访时表示：“哈萨克斯坦有权退出欧亚经济联盟。哈萨克斯坦不会加入危及本国独立的组织。”Both Moscow and Astana play down the prospect of Kazakhstan’s leaving the EEU, which is not due to come into existence formally until January.
莫斯科和阿斯塔纳双方都有意淡化哈萨克斯坦退出欧亚经济联盟的前景。欧亚经济联盟要到明年1月才会正式问世。Nonetheless, officials and analysts agree that the crisis in Ukraine has strained relations. “It is clear now that this association with Russia can cost Kazakhstan dearly,” says one person with knowledge of government thinking in Astana.
然而，官员和分析师们同意乌克兰危机让各方关系紧张的看法。一位了解阿斯塔纳政府思路的人士表示：“现在明显的是，与俄罗斯的这种联系可能让哈萨克斯坦吃大亏。”Kazakhstan has long sought to balance the competing interests of its two powerful neighbours, Russia and China. But its strong trade, financial and social ties with Russia mean that sanctions against Moscow are inevitably affecting Kazakhstan, says Umut Shayakhmetova, chairman of the board of Halyk Bank, Kazakhstan’s second-largest lender.
哈萨克斯坦长期寻求平衡两大邻国俄罗斯和中国相互竞争的利益。但哈萨克斯坦第二大银行——国民银行(Halyk Bank)董事长乌穆特•沙亚赫梅托瓦(Umut Shayakhmetova)表示，该国与俄罗斯密切的贸易、金融和社会联系意味着，对莫斯科的制裁将不可避免地影响哈萨克斯坦。“We are already getting lots of compliance questions from western banks,” she says, predicting the effect of sanctions against Moscow would be “very bad” for Kazakhstan.
沙亚赫梅托瓦表示：“西方银行已经对我们提出了许多合规问题。”她预计，制裁莫斯科将对哈萨克斯坦产生“非常不利”的影响。Kazakhstan’s economy is already feeling the chill, with gross domestic product growth slowing to 3.9 per cent in the first half of the year from 6 per cent last year, while trade with Russia has fallen by a fifth. The country’s economy minister last month revealed that it had prepared a Plan C in the event of further western sanctions against Russia.
哈萨克斯坦的经济已经感受到寒流，今年上半年国内生产总值(GDP)增长从去年的6%放缓至3.9%，同时与俄罗斯的贸易下降五分之一。哈萨克斯坦经济部长上月披露称，该国已经准备了一份C计划，以应对西方可能进一步对俄罗斯施加的制裁。“Reciprocal sanctions have been taken between countries accounting for 60 per cent of global GDP – this implies serious adjustments,” Mr Nazarbayev said upon opening a new session of the Kazakh parliament yesterday.
纳扎尔巴耶夫日前在哈萨克斯坦议会开始新的会期时表示：“占全球GDP 60%的国家实施了针锋相对的制裁，这意味着将会出现严重的调整。”But Mr Putin has appeared irked. Speaking at a town hall-style gathering, he took a question on whether Kazakhstan could see “a Ukrainian scenario” when Mr Nazarbayev is succeeded as president.
但普京似乎被激怒了。他在一个基层集会上被问到，当纳扎尔巴耶夫卸任总统、由其他人接替的时候，哈萨克斯坦是否会出现“乌克兰情景”？Given how carefully choreographed Mr Putin’s public appearances are, the question itself touched a nerve in Kazakhstan.
鉴于普京在公众面前的形象是经过精心设计的，这个问题本身就触动了哈萨克斯坦的神经。The country’s single greatest uncertainty is what will happen after Mr Nazarbayev, who has ruled since the break-up of the Soviet Union, stands aside or dies.
哈萨克斯坦最大的不确定性是，在纳扎尔巴耶夫下台或死亡后将会出现何种局面。纳扎尔巴耶夫自苏联解体后一直统治着哈萨克斯坦。Mr Putin praised the Kazakh president’s intelligence before asserting that “the Kazakhs never had statehood” before 1991. He was convinced that Kazakhstan would remain in the EEU, he added, because its people recognised that it was “good for them to remain in the sphere of the so-called greater Russian world, which is a part of global civilisation”.
普京首先赞扬哈萨克斯坦总统非常聪明，然后宣称，在1991年前“哈萨克斯坦国从未存在过”。他补充称，他认为哈萨克斯坦将会留在欧亚经济联盟，因为其民众认识到，“留在所谓的大俄罗斯世界的势力范围内是有利的，大俄罗斯世界是全球文明的一部分。”The comment was taken as part threat, part insult in Kazakhstan which, like Ukraine, has regions with a majority ethnic Russian population, fuelling fears it might share Kiev’s fate.
哈萨克斯坦认为这番话一半是威胁，一半是侮辱。与乌克兰一样，在哈萨克斯坦的某些地区，俄罗斯族人口占绝大多数，这令人担心它可能遭遇与基辅类似的命运。
