人民币汇率再次让世界困惑 Chinese currency moves sow confusion

Not for the first time this year, the behaviour of the Chinese renminbi is causing more than the odd furrowed brow in the markets

人民币波动正在令全球市场眉头紧锁，这已不是今年的第一次。

The powers that be in China have spent much of the past few months patiently explaining that their currency’s long-time peg against the dollar is history, and henceforth the renminbi will be managed with reference to a trade-weighted basket of 13 currencies.

过去几个月中国当局花费大量精力耐心解释，人民币与美元的长期挂钩已成为历史，今后人民币的管理将参照由13种货币组成的贸易加权货币篮子。

Amid widespread confusion over the change in foreign exchange policy, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, spelt it out in mid-February, when he said keeping the exchange rate against the basket “at a broadly stable level” will be the “keynote” of the new regime.

面对市场对人民币汇率改革存在的普遍困惑，中国央行(PBoC)行长周小川2月中旬作出了详细说明，他表示保持一篮子汇率的“基本稳定”，将是新的人民币汇率形成机制的“主基调”。

“As a result,” he added, “the stability of the renminbi to a basket of currencies will be strengthened and the two-way volatility of the renminbi to the US dollar enhanced.”

他同时表示：“实施这种形成机制的结果，将是人民币对一篮子货币的汇率的稳定性不断增强，而人民币对美元的双向波动则会有所加大。”

All of which makes the currency’s behaviour since the introduction of the exchange rate regime slightly puzzling.

这一切令人民币新汇率形成机制引入以来的人民币波动有些令人费解。

So far this year, the renminbi has been virtually flat against the dollar, but fallen 2.9 per cent against the basket to its lowest level since November 2014, as the chart shows.

如图所示，今年到目前为止，人民币兑美元汇率基本持平，但对一篮子货币汇率却下跌2.9%，跌至2014年11月以来最低水平。

“If this continued [this will] undermine the People’s Bank’s case that the currency is being kept ‘basically stable’,” says Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, who says the Chinese authorities have “mismanaged” the renminbi since first announcing the basket in December.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席亚洲经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示：“如果持续如此，就会动摇中国央行的说法，即人民币正保持‘基本稳定’。”他表示自去年12月首次宣布人民币汇率参考一篮子货币以来，中国有关部门对人民币一直“管理不善”。

“December’s oblique statement that they were managing [the renminbi] against the basket was one of the triggers of the [global market] panic. So they responded by locking down volatility against the dollar, the opposite to what the statement had suggested,” Mr Williams says.

威廉姆斯表示：“去年12月他们曾隐晦地声明正在参考一篮子货币管理人民币汇率，这成为全球市场恐慌的诱发因素之一。而他们的反应是锁定人民币对美元的波动，这与12月的声明正相悖。”

He believes the People’s Bank has taken advantage of a period of broad dollar weakness to let the renminbi slide, a move that has gone little noticed with most attention still focused on the bilateral rate against the dollar.

他认为中国央行利用了美元全线走弱时期让人民币下滑，此举鲜少引起注意，因为大部分注意力仍集中于人民币兑美元的双边汇率。

Robert Minikin, head of Asia FX strategy at Standard Chartered, believes at least part of the weakening of the renminbi on a trade-weighted basis is “tactical”, given that the dollar might be expected to strengthen anew if and when the US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates again.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)亚洲外汇策略负责人罗伯特•米尼金(Robert Minikin)认为，人民币在贸易加权基础上走弱至少在部分上是“战术性的”，这是考虑到如果当美联储(Fed)开始再次加息，美元预计会重新走强。

By choosing not to let the renminbi strengthen against the softer dollar now — which would happen if the Chinese currency was held steady against the basket — the People’s Bank is leaving more room for the renminbi to partially follow the greenback higher in future without losing too much competitiveness.

在美元较疲软的现阶段，通过选择不让人民币对美元走强——如果人民币对一篮子货币汇率持稳，就会导致人民币对美元走强——中国央行正为人民币留出更大空间，未来可以在一定程度上跟随美元上涨，而不会失去太多竞争力。

Mr Minikin’s view stems from his perception that China is in reality steering a “middle path” between maintaining a stable trade-weighted rate and a stable rate against the dollar.

米尼金的观点源于他的一个看法，即中国实际上在沿着一条“中间路线”航行，它介于维持稳定的贸易加权汇率与维持稳定的兑美元汇率之间。

“When you get big moves in the dollar’s value, they are reflecting that in some way in the [renminbi’s] fix, but not in a way to completely prevent it feeding through into [the trade-weighted] value,” he says.

他表示：“如果美元汇率出现大幅波动，他们将以某种方式把它反映到人民币中间价上，但又不会完全阻止它传导至贸易加权汇率。”

“I think it’s still in transition, the idea that they have jumped directly to manage against the basket hasn’t been borne out by these moves,” says Mr Minikin, who believes this period of transition could last for several years given the wider world’s continuing obsession with the bilateral dollar rate.

米尼金说：“我认为人民币汇率机制仍处于过渡期。这些举动还体现不出他们已经直接跳跃到参考一篮子货币管理人民币汇率。”他认为考虑到全球市场继续执迷于人民币兑美元双边汇率，这一过渡期可能会持续数年。

In reality, the Chinese authorities have always said that while they want the renminbi to be broadly stable against the basket, this does not entail a hard and fast peg.

事实上，中国当局一直表示，虽然他们希望人民币对一篮子货币汇率基本稳定，但这并不意味着要牢牢挂钩。

Instead, movements are supposed to reflect “the dynamic of market supply and demand” in the “real economy” (the supply and demand dynamics emanating from the activities of “speculators” do not count).

相反，人民币的波动应反映出“实体经济”中“市场的供求变化”（“投机者”活动引起的供求变化不计算在内）。

David Bloom, head of FX research at HSBC, believes the renminbi’s recent moves do reflect a partial transition towards a more market-oriented currency, as well as a desire to create more uncertainty in the minds of traders.

汇丰(HSBC)外汇研究主管戴维•布卢姆(David Bloom)认为，人民币近期波动确实反映出其汇率制度在一定程度上正朝着更市场化的方向过渡，同时反映出中国当局希望在交易者心中建立更多不确定性。

“Don’t think they are going to micromanage [the renminbi’s rate]. They will keep us guessing a bit and that’s what you have to do in financial markets,” Mr Bloom says.

布卢姆说：“不要以为他们会对（人民币汇率）进行微管理。他们会让我们一直猜来猜去，而这正是我们在金融市场里不得不做的事。”

Despite this, Mr Minikin believes there is “every chance” the renminbi will ultimately settle at around the 100 level against the basket, compared with its current level of 98.05.

尽管如此，米尼金还是认为人民币对一篮子货币汇率指数“很可能”最终落在100左右，目前为98.05。

The 100-mark is the level the renminbi closed at on December 31 2014, when the International Monetary Fund thought it was about fair value in trade-weighted terms.

100是2014年12月31日人民币收盘时的水平，当时国际货币基金组织(IMF)认为这是以贸易加权计人民币的公允价值。

However, given the uncertainty the renminbi’s ructions cause for markets worldwide, he argues there is merit in Beijing adopting a more explicit FX regime to avoid any misunderstandings.

但是，考虑到人民币波动给全球市场造成的不确定性，米尼金认为北京方面应采取更明确的外汇制度，以避免产生任何误解。

“Singapore has been more explicit. It allows for 2 per cent swings of the trade-weighted index around the central rate. That is the sort of thing we are perhaps moving towards,” he says hopefully.

他满怀希望地说：“新加坡已经采取了更加明确的制度，允许贸易加权汇率围绕轴心点有2%的波动，这正是我们可能前进的方向。”