财新制造业PMI连续第十个月低于荣枯线

A closely-watched survey of China’s manufacturing activity showed the sector’s pace of contraction quickened in the final month of the year, underscoring weakness shown only a few days earlier in the country’s official figures.

财新(Caixin)Markit制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)12月为48.2，低于11月的48.6。经济学家原本预计12月指数为48.9。

The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 48.2 in December, down from 48.6 in November. Economists were looking for a reading of 48.9.

数字显示，中国制造业在2015年最后一个月加快收缩步伐，与此前几天发布的中国官方数据同样凸显出该行业的疲软。

That still leaves it below the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Only in February did China’s manufacturing sector expand last year, according to the Caixin/Markit survey

即使48.9的预计也低于50荣枯线。根据财新Markit调查，中国制造业仅在去年2月呈现扩张状态。

The slippage comes after two months of improvement in October and November. The survey hasn’t seen more than three consecutive increases since July 2014.

中国PMI指数在去年10月和11月有所改善，之后又出现下滑。自2014年7月以来，财新Markit调查还未见过连续三个月以上的增长。

He Fan, chief economist at Caixin Insight Group said:This shows that the forces driving an economic recovery have encountered obstacles and the economy is facing a greater risk of weakening. More fluctuations in global markets are expected now that the US Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates. The government needs to pay more attention to external risk factors in the short term and fine-tune macroeconomic policies accordingly so the economy does not fall off a cliff. It needs to simultaneously push forward the supply-side reform to release its potential and reap the benefits.

财新智库首席经济学家何帆表示，这说明经济复苏动力受阻，下行压力加大。随着美联储(Fed)进入加息周期，全球市场动荡或进一步加剧。政府应重视短期外部风险，实施预调微调的宏观经济政策组合，避免经济出现断崖式下跌。同时继续推进供给侧改革，尽早释放改革红利。

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics at the start of this month showed the official manufacturing PMI creeping slightly higher to 49.7, but remaining in contractionary territory for a fifth-straight month.

从中国国家统计局本月初公布的数据显示，官方制造业PMI指数小幅攀升至49.7，但仍然连续第五个月处于收缩状态。