猪肉涨价给我们带来的教训
Heed lessons of the pork price hike
猪肉涨价给我们带来的教训
The Commerce Ministry said it has been closely following the rising price of pork in the market, and will put more frozen pork, beef and lamb reserved by the central government into the market to increase the supply of meat. The 21st Century Business Herald comments:
商务部表示其一直密切关注市场上猪肉价格的上涨，并计划将中央政府预留的冷冻猪肉、牛肉和羊肉投入市场以增加肉类供应。《21世纪经济报道》（The 21st Century Business Herald）如是评论：
The outbreak of African swine fever last year has brought down the breeding stock of pigs in China. In October last year, the number of reproductive sows decreased by 5.9 percent year-on-year, breaking the 5 percent warning line. The decrease has been expanding continuously ever since, hitting 26.7 percent in June. Since it takes at least 10 months for piglets to mature, and the fall in the number of sows has not been checked, the supply of pork will continue to slip for months.
去年非洲猪瘟的爆发使得我国的生猪养殖数量急剧下降。去年10月份，母猪的数量同比下降5.9%，超过了5%的警戒线。之后，下降率逐步扩大，今年6月同比下降26.7%。由于小猪崽大约需要10个月的时间才能养肥，且尚不清楚减少的母猪数量，因此猪肉供需关系将进一步收紧。
But history shows when the price of pork goes up, the pig farming industry will increase its investment to quickly expand their breeding scale to gain from high prices, and with the increase of supply, the price of pork will decline soon.
但历史表明，当猪肉价格上涨时，养猪业将加大投资以快速扩大养殖规模并从高价中获利，而随着供应量的增加，猪肉也会很快降价。
Since the epidemic has been largely controlled nationwide, it will only be a matter of time before the pork supply picks up, and the price falls. The other cause is that stricter environmental protection policies carried out after April 2015 have forced many small-scale pig farms, whose capacity to manage the risks of diseases and price fluctuations is much weaker, to shut down.
由于全国范围内的猪瘟疫情已得到很大程度的控制，因此猪肉供应量增加、猪肉价格降低只是时间问题。另一个原因是，2015年4月开始实施的更为严格的环境保护政策迫使许多小型养猪场关闭，这些养殖场管理疾病风险和价格波动的能力颇弱。
The disappearance of small farms means the industry has put all its eggs in one basket－large pig farms. Before effective methods were found to control the outbreak of swine fever, weeding out the small pig farms has actually weakened the whole industry's capacity to cope with the epidemic.
小型养猪场的消失意味着养猪业的孤注一掷——大型养猪场。在找到控制猪瘟爆发的有效方法前，淘汰小型养猪场实际上削弱了整个行业应对疫情的能力。
Even if it has affected dozens of countries, the African swine fever should not be classified as "natural disaster" to justify the pork price hike. The authorities have plenty of lessons to draw from the dramatic changes in the pig industry to improve their adaptability and risk-prevention ability for the management of the food industry.
即使非洲猪瘟已影响了数十个国家，但也不应为了证明猪肉价格上涨的合理性而将其归类为“自然灾害”。当局从养猪业的巨大变化中汲取了大量教训，并致力于提高他们对食品行业管理的适应性和风险防范能力。
