苏独难在欧盟和北约找到知音

Scotland will renounce weapons of mass destruction and then saunter into the Nato nuclear Alliance. So eager will be the EU to fling open its doors that it will skip the formalities, and Edinburgh will pick and choose among the terms of membership. The world, in other words, cannot wait to welcome an independent Scotland into its warm embrace. So says Alex Salmond, leader of the Scottish National party, as the nation prepares to vote on separation.

苏格兰将宣布放弃大规模杀伤性武器，然后悠然加入北约(Nato)核同盟。欧盟(EU)会急切地敞开大门，以至于会直接跳过正常程序。对成为欧盟成员国的条款，爱丁堡还能挑挑拣拣。换句话说，这个世界已经迫不及待地欢迎一个独立的苏格兰投入它温暖的怀抱。在苏格兰准备为从英国分裂出去而投票之际，苏格兰民族党(Scottish National party)的党魁亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)是这么说的。

Things are not quite like that, of course. Many European governments fear that a vote for Scottish independence will give succour to separatist movements across the continent. They have little interest in making life easy for a new breakaway state.

当然，事情并非如此。许多欧洲国家政府担心，苏格兰独立公投会促进整个欧洲大陆的分裂运动。它们并没有兴趣让一个新分离出来的国家轻松快活地过日子。

The US has made no secret about its fears of what the break-up of Britain will mean for the cohesion of the western alliance. Nuclear deterrence is at the heart of the organisation’s strategic concept. As Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the outgoing secretary-general, observed this week, each of the 28 existing member states would have to sign up to the admission of an anti-nuclear Scotland.

美国毫不掩饰其对英国分裂影响北约凝聚力的忧虑。核威慑是北约战略理念的核心。正如即将离任的北约秘书长安诺斯•福格•拉斯穆森(Anders Fogh Rasmussen)本周表示的，接纳一个反核的苏格兰，需要现有的28个成员国的一致批准。

For Mr Salmond’s nationalists, these are inconvenient facts to be brushed aside, like the many outstanding economic questions, as English scaremongering. All those other states – in the EU and Nato – could be relied upon to discard their prejudices and interests in celebration of Scottish independence. Mr Rasmussen, José Manuel Barroso at the European Commission, the White House and anyone else you can think of will play a different tune after Thursday’s vote.

对于萨尔蒙德领导的民族主义者来说，这些尴尬事实和苏格兰许多突出的经济问题都可以置之不理，都可以斥之以“英格兰人的危言耸听”。你可以指望欧盟和北约的所有其他国家摒弃偏见和利益考虑，欢迎苏格兰的独立。在今天投票以后，拉斯穆森、欧盟委员会(European Commission)主席若泽•曼努埃尔•巴罗佐(José Manuel Barroso)、白宫以及你能够想象到的其他任何人都将改弦易张。

Beyond insisting that Scotland will banish the Trident nuclear missile system from the Clyde and that it will not be drawn into conflicts in the Middle East, Mr Salmond does not have a foreign policy for his new state. And on this last issue – the reach beyond the Middle East of Islamist extremism – the murder this week of Scottish aid worker David Haines has raised the question as to whether Scotland could so easily inoculate itself against the harsh realities of the wider world.

除了坚称苏格兰会将“三叉戟”(Trident)核导弹系统从克莱德(Clyde)海军基地撤出，以及苏格兰不会卷入中东争端以外，萨尔蒙德没有为他的新国家提出一套外交政策。在最后的这个问题上，在中东的伊斯兰极端主义之外，本周苏格兰救援工作人员戴维•海恩斯(David Haines)被杀提出了一个问题：苏格兰是否能够轻松让自己免于面对来自更广阔世界的严酷现实。

There is nothing to say that either European neighbours or the US would seek to isolate a Scotland that decided to strike out on its own. Over time it is entirely plausible to imagine it being welcomed into both the EU and Nato. The deception in the nationalist campaign lies in the assertion that everyone else would bend to Edinburgh’s will and allow Mr Salmond to dictate his own terms.

这并不是说欧洲的邻国或者美国会刻意孤立决定自立门户的苏格兰。随着时间推移，完全有道理想象苏格兰被欧盟和北约接纳。苏格兰民族主义运动中的谎言是，断言其他所有人都会屈从于爱丁堡的意愿，允许萨尔蒙德按自己的想法指定条件。

The idea that Scotland could join the EU with a share of the British rebate, no commitment to sign up to the Schengen area’s open borders and a permanent opt-out from the euro is regarded as risible in other European capitals. Mr Salmond seems to believe that, even as Scotland breaks away from the UK, it can inherit all the opt-outs negotiated by the Westminster government. It is not going to happen.

苏格兰民族主义者试图让苏格兰人相信，苏格兰能够加入欧盟，并分享一部分英国的预算回扣(rebate)，不用承诺签署申根区开放边境协议，而且可以永久不使用欧元，但在其他欧洲国家政府看来，苏格兰民族主义者的这种想法是可笑的。萨尔蒙德似乎相信，即使苏格兰从英国分裂出去，苏格兰依然能继承英国政府达成的所有关于自主事项的条款。但这种情况不会发生。

Nor will the Nato treaty be moulded and amended to suit Scotland’s tastes. Scotland may succeed in banishing Britain’s nuclear weapons – something that will hardly win it friends in the alliance – but it would not be accepted for membership as an anti-nuclear-weapons state.

北约也不会重塑和修改其协议条款来适应苏格兰的口味。苏格兰或许能够成功地移走英国的核武器，但这会让苏格兰很难在北约中找到朋友，作为反核武国家的苏格兰将不会被北约接受为成员国。

Take it on trust, the nationalists say. Scotland would move quickly to build its own military forces, its own intelligence and security services, and a diplomatic corps the envy of its partners. All these things are indeed possible. But they will require time, lots of it – and, critically, the enthusiastic help and co-operation not just of Britain but of other western governments.

相信吧，苏格兰民族主义者说。苏格兰会迅速行动，组建自己的军事力量、情报和安保体系以及让合作伙伴艳羡的外交使团。所有这些确实都是可能的。但它们需要时间，需要很多时间，关键是，还需要英国和其他西方国家政府的热情帮助和合作。

Mr Salmond, as far as I can see, does not have anything you could call a world view. Instead, in the tradition of children in the playground through the ages, he prefers to respond to the hard questions by putting his hands over his ears and shouting as loudly as he can: “I can’t hear you.”

在我看来，萨尔蒙德完全不具有全球视野。相反，像古往今来在操场上玩耍的孩童那样，用手捂住耳朵并且尽可能地高声叫喊“我听不见你说的话”，是他更喜欢的回应难题的方式。