中国楼市出现复苏迹象 Green shoots in China’s flagging property market
Chinese housing prices rose at their fastest monthly pace in 18 months, a private survey showed on Thursday, the latest sign that the country's property market, a key growth driver, is recovering from a year-long slump.
周四，一项民间调查显示，中国房价出现18个月来的最大环比上涨。这一最新迹象表明，作为中国经济增长的重要引擎，中国楼市正从持续一年的下滑中复苏。The slumping property market is a major reason growth in China’s economy slowed to a six-year low in the fourth quarter. Economists estimate that building, sale and outfitting of apartments accounts for about a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product.
不断下滑的楼市是去年第四季度中国经济增速放缓至六年低点的主要原因之一。经济学家估计，中国国内生产总值(GDP)约有四分之一来自住房建设、销售和装修。
Average home prices rose 0.56 per cent in June from a month earlier, data from the China Index Academy’s survey of 100 cities show, up from a 0.45 per cent gain in May and the fastest growth since January 2014. In spite of the new figures, however, analysts expect the market to recover only gradually.
中国指数研究院(China Index Academy)对100个城市的调查所得出的数据显示，6月份中国平均房价环比上涨0.56%，高于5月份0.45%的环比涨幅，是2014年1月以来的最高环比涨幅。但尽管如此，分析师还是预计楼市只会缓步复苏。
“A nationwide property market recovery will remain a prolonged and strenuous process, dragged by large inventory overhangs in second and third-tier cities,” Australia and New Zealand Banking Group analysts led by Liu Li-Gang wrote in a note.
以刘利刚为首的澳新银行集团(ANZ)分析师在一份报告中写道：“受二三线城市积压的大量库存的拖累，全国性的楼市复苏仍将是个漫长而艰苦的过程。”The central bank has slashed benchmark interest rates four times since November, helping to lower mortgage costs. The People’s Bank of China has also cut the amount of cash that commercial banks must hold in reserve at the central bank, increasing liquidity in the financial system.
自去年11月以来，中国央行已四次降息，帮助降低房贷成本。此外，中国央行还下调了商业银行存款准备金率，向中国金融体系注入更多流动性。ANZ estimates that a 1 percentage point increase in property prices translates to 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth.
据澳新银行估计，房价每上涨1个百分点，GDP增速就会提升0.2个百分点。Analysts also say that some investors are now taking profits from the Chinese stock market — which hit a seven-year high on June 12 but has tumbled more than 20 per cent in the past two weeks — and investing them into property, which looks more fairly valued after a year of falling prices.
分析师还表示，部分投资者正从中国股市获利离场，并将所得资金投资于房地产。中国股市在6月12日达到七年高点后，在过去两周里下跌了20%以上。而房价在经历了一年的下滑之后，现在看起来更合理一些。Local governments have also taken measures to stimulate the housing market. Xi’an, in central China, recently allowed non-native homebuyers who purchase flats larger than 90 sq m to obtain a residence permit for the city, which comes with social welfare benefits.
除此以外，地方政府也采取了多项措施刺激楼市。最近，西安市允许购房面积在90平米以上的外地购房者在西安落户，这意味着他们可享受到与西安户籍相伴的社会福利。The price recovery matches official data showing that new residential property sales were up 13 per cent annually in floor-area terms in May, the second month of gains after 13 straight months of falling sales.
这一显示房价回升的调查结果，与官方发布的数据一致。官方数据显示，5月份新房销售面积同比增长13%，这是该数据在连续13个月下滑后第二次上升。The central bank’s first-quarter household survey showed that 14.7 per cent of residents said they planned to buy a home in the next three months, up from 13.8 per cent in the previous quarter.
中国央行第一季度对家庭展开的调查显示，14.7%的家庭表示计划在未来3个月买房，而上一个季度的数字为13.8%。Rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook for China’s property sector on June 1 to stable from negative.
6月1日，评级机构穆迪(Moody's)将其对中国房地产业的展望从负面上调至稳定。Official data still showed monthly price declines for newly built residential apartments in May but the decline narrowed to 0.1 per cent, according to FT analysis of the figures. Official property price data for June is due out July 18.
此外，根据英国《金融时报》的分析，虽然中国官方数据仍显示5月份新房价格环比下跌，但其跌幅却收窄至0.1%。至于6月份房价的官方数据，则定于在7月18日公布。
