关注社会:亚洲股市显现抄底机会

After a selloff since May that has left stocks in Asia just above where they started the year, some investors are looking to buy as China seeks to prop up its economy, the second-largest in the world.

在5月份以来的下跌使亚洲股市仅略高于年初水平之后，在世界第二大经济体中国谋求提振国内经济之际，一些投资者开始考虑买进。

Optimism stems from the combination of a fresh stimulus package, a cut in interest rates and moves to boost bank lending that have smoothed a slowdown in the country. That has blunted fears of a hard landing, a scenario that would send emerging-market investors rushing to havens, given the region's ever-closer trading and financial ties.

投资者的乐观源自新推刺激方案、利率下调，以及增加银行放贷（起到减轻中国经济增长放缓的作用）的措施。这些措施缓和了硬着陆担忧。考虑到亚洲地区内部日益紧密的贸易与金融联系，如果中国经济发生硬着陆，新兴市场投资者就会争先恐后地将资金转移到避险资产。

Worries over Europe's debt crisis have been responsible for the broad slump in the second quarter, but that has left stocks looking cheap, given continued faith in the region's growth, although few are willing to bet there couldn't be more losses before a recovery.

对欧洲债务危机的担忧导致第二季度股市普跌，但考虑到投资者对亚洲地区增长潜力仍有信心，这也使股票显得便宜。不过很少有人愿意打赌反弹之前不可能进一步下跌。

"Equity markets will benefit from the [China] policy easing. But there is a lag effect and it has yet to come through," said Soon Gek Chew, head of strategy and economic research for the Asian-Pacific region at Credit Suisse Private Bank.

瑞士信贷私人银行(Credit Suisse Private Bank)亚太区策略与经济研究负责人Soon Gek Chew说，股市将受益于中国的政策放松，但其中存在滞后效应，影响还没有显现。

The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index, a broad measure of stocks across the region, fell 7.9% in the second quarter but is up 4.5% year to date.

反映亚洲地区股市状况的摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（除日本）指数(MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan Index)在第二季度下跌7.9%，但年初以来上涨了4.5%。

The best performing market in Asia in the second quarter, excluding China, was the Philippines, where the PSE Composite Index rose 2.7%. The index is up 20% year to date. The Southeast Asian country remained resilient against global economic developments, as its strong economic growth in the first quarter demonstrated.

在中国以外，第二季度亚洲地区表现最好的市场是菲律宾，菲律宾证券交易所综合指数(PSE Composite Index)在这期间上涨2.7%。该指数年初以来上涨了20%。在千变万化的国际经济形势面前，这个东南亚国家仍有抗压能力，一季度强劲的经济增长就是明证。

Research by Credit Suisse says one measure of the MSCI index's valuation, that compares companies current values with expected future earnings, is equivalent to the crisis-low levels of October 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

瑞士信贷的研究表明，一个反映摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（除日本）指数估值状况的指标已经相当于雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后、2008年10月份危机期间的最低水平。这个指标比较了成份股公司当前市值与未来预期收益。

"If you look at Asian valuations on both a market and historical basis, Asian markets are quite compelling," said Medha Samant, investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, which manages $288 billion world-wide. The MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index is priced at an estimated 2012 trailing price-to-book ratio of 1.6, a 20% discount to its five-year average of 2.0, according to Credit Suisse.

富达国际投资(Fidelity Worldwide Investment)的投资总监萨曼特(Medha Samant)说，无论以目前的市场行情还是过往经验来看亚洲股票的估值，亚洲市场都十分具有吸引力。富达国际投资在全世界管理着2,880亿美元的资产。瑞士信贷表示，摩根士丹利资本国际亚洲（除日本）指数2012年往绩市净率为1.6倍，较五年市净率均值低20%。

Michael Kurtz, Asia strategist and head of global equity strategy at Nomura in Hong Kong, points out that the equity risk premium, which measures the return offered by stocks compared with less-risky assets such as Treasurys, is far higher than its long-term average.

野村(Nomura)驻香港亚洲策略师、全球股票策略主管库尔茨(Michael Kurtz)指出，股权风险溢价目前远高于长期均值。股权风险溢价是股票收益率与国债等风险较低的资产收益率的差额。

"Investors are willing to pay a very high price for safety," Mr. Kurtz said.

库尔茨说，投资者现在愿意为安全性出大价钱。

There still are plenty of risks hanging over markets, with many of them outside of Asia. Catalysts that could cause another round of selling include a Greece exit from the euro zone or a default in another European nation. Still, even that could present opportunities.

市场上目前仍有很多风险，但其中很多都在亚洲以外。可能引发另一场抛售潮的催化因素包括希腊从欧元区退出或另一个欧洲国家违约等。不过，即便是这些情况下也可能蕴含机遇。

"In a selloff, even some of the quality names can come down, so we are using the dips to buy into companies that still have good earnings potential," Ms. Samant said.

萨曼特说，抛售时，即便是一些大牌公司的股票也可能受挫，所以我们将利用股市下跌来买入那些仍有良好盈利潜力的股票。

The question is whether the potential upside outweighs the risks of further losses. Research by Citigroup Inc. suggests that the odds are in favor of those willing to build exposure now.

现在的问题是，股票的上行潜力是否超过进一步下挫的风险。花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的研究报告显示，那些愿意现在买进的人胜算的把握更大。

Citigroup argued in its outlook for the second half of the year released on June 8 that the probability of making money from these levels over the last 37 years has been 70%, with an average return of 22% over the following 12 months. For those who were unlucky enough to be in the losing 30%, average losses were just 8.5%.

花旗在6月8日发布的今年下半年展望报告中认为，在过去37年里，从类似于目前行情的市场中赚钱的可能性是70%，未来12个月的平均回报率是22%。而那些不幸赔钱的占30%的投资者，平均损失也仅为8.5%。

In the foreign-exchange market, one big loser in Asia has been the Indian rupee, which has been hitting historic lows against the U.S. dollar as the government has been unable to alleviate the double hit of a slowdown in exports and rising imports. The dollar rose 9.1% against the rupee in the second quarter and is up 4.7% this year.

亚洲外汇市场上的一大输家是印度卢比。卢比兑美元不断创历史新低，原因在于印度政府一直无力缓解出口减速和进口增加的双重打击。美元对卢比今年第二季度上涨9.1%，今年全年上涨4.7%。